South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: CA Paranaense (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08c4ca435610160dd84e2de25bdc1d5fdb19ccd030813ee43bf808b604d4367d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- CA Paranaenseof CA Paranaense, Associação Chapecoense de Futebol
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,447
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,091
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,447 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbff4…b609backed CA Paranaense | 41c | 817.13$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.69 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed CA Paranaense | 34c | 731.27$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.05 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd73…4da1backed CA Paranaense | 38c | 675.89$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.41 | 153 | 26.1%40 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 65c | 501.67$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.28 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 61c | 499.76$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.85 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 66c | 466.39$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.63 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47fb…0c7bbacked Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 59c | 185$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.15 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 60c | 135.76$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.29 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 63c | 101.36$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.53 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 70c | 80.56$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.35 | 367 | 57.5%211 W · 156 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 70c | 80.56$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.35 | 159 | 56.6%90 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…0048backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 59c | 78.49$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.31 | 230 | 56.5%130 W · 100 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked CA Paranaense | 40c | 67.46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.52 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed CA Paranaense | 27c | 67.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.38 | 636 | 57.5%366 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed CA Paranaense | 27c | 67.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.38 | 281 | 58.7%165 W · 116 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed CA Paranaense | 27c | 67.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.38 | 161 | 60.9%98 W · 63 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 74c | 65.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 261 | 60.9%159 W · 102 L | +20.4wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1de9…9499backed CA Paranaense | 38c | 60.81$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.7 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6924…1455backed CA Paranaense | 25c | 53.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.11 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +6.5wins | +0.22per pick | 42cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 65c | 49.62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.29 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb27b…5d6ebacked Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 62c | 47.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 61c | 46.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 60c | 44.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 60c | 43.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 650 | 58%377 W · 273 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6479…7558backed CA Paranaense | 39c | 41.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.29 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcab…b9bbbacked CA Paranaense | 47c | 41.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 70c | 25.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 571 | 57.8%330 W · 241 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 70c | 25.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 477 | 56%267 W · 210 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 75c | 17.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 69 | 63.8%44 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…89b1backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 74c | 14.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 154 | 57.1%88 W · 66 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: CA Paranaense (-1.5)this page
- CA Paranaense vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CA Paranaense vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 1.5Over won
- CA Paranaense vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 2.5Under won
- CA Paranaense vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Associação Chapecoense de Futebol (-1.5)CA Paranaense won
- Spread: CA Paranaense (-2.5)Associação Chapecoense de Futebol won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.