South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Paranaense vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc20b819dcf66354c44fc54fc1ce7a9b9a1eeac0e68c6c125b1a2e00c6ea0788
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,108
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,570
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,108 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 38c | 2,969$1,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,117.75 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 62c | 1,243$771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.16 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2dc…b624backed Over | 32c | 1,000$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 67c | 945.19$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.78 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 57c | 853.03$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.32 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b84…2f73backed Under | 38c | 737.91$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.31 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…abffbacked Under | 25c | 417.64$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.41 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -48%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…de45backed Under | 45c | 413.2$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.94 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Over | 65c | 355.09$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.98 | 367 | 57.5%211 W · 156 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Over | 65c | 355.09$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.98 | 159 | 56.6%90 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked Over | 65c | 344.84$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.56 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Over | 65c | 338.12$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.19 | 281 | 58.7%165 W · 116 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Over | 65c | 332.83$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.32 | 412 | 56.6%233 W · 179 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 33c | 256.81$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.96 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 56c | 238.61$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.81 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1650…42f6backed Under | 45c | 216.63$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.48 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 75c | 172.37$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.09 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87df…48f3backed Over | 77c | 166.64$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.44 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf26f…8f93backed Under | 12c | 161.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7663…c9aabacked Over | 43c | 157.22$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.62 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa69c…890ebacked Over | 50c | 157.14$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Under | 24c | 130.2$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 47 | 8.5%4 W · 43 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaea3…7078backed Over | 77c | 128.85$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.26 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 72c | 98.32$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.53 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d12…cc43backed Over | 32c | 89.93$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.15 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +36%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Over | 64c | 76.64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.73 | 449 | 59%265 W · 184 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Over | 64c | 76.64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.73 | 388 | 61.3%238 W · 150 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 23c | 67.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6687…b9ddbacked Over | 65c | 63.14$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.82 | 56 | 60.7%34 W · 22 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 56c | 59.97$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.38 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 51c | 59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.91 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 52c | 42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdefe…3f87backed Over | 52c | 39.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…89b1backed Over | 66c | 37.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 154 | 57.1%88 W · 66 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over | 79c | 34.56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 217 | 65.4%142 W · 75 L | +24.1wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e4…d947backed Under | 40c | 33.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5471…a236backed Over | 39c | 28.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15bb…2033backed Over | 63c | 22.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x278f…5c17backed Under | 49c | 21.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb6…9ce6backed Under | 52c | 20.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c78…e29bbacked Over | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1605…1888backed Over | 76c | 15.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Paranaense vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 1.5this page
- CA Paranaense vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CA Paranaense vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 2.5Under won
- CA Paranaense vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Associação Chapecoense de Futebol (-1.5)CA Paranaense won
- Spread: CA Paranaense (-1.5)CA Paranaense won
- Spread: CA Paranaense (-2.5)Associação Chapecoense de Futebol won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.