South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Paranaense vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca711ab4eb4ba0eb05f0fc003d9ab9b3d9820f551473ab527e89022797cb734c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,149
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,438
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,149 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x74d0…de45backed Over | 31c | 1,229$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.04 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 73c | 1,025$753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.27 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 35c | 848.22$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.3 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 71c | 591.61$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.39 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Over | 28c | 545.32$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.5 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 9c | 446.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.21 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…da9ebacked Under | 49c | 395.67$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.79 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -11.2wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 56c | 166.52$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.85 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 76c | 160.53$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 61c | 103.58$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.92 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 70c | 98.17$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.92 | 217 | 52.1%113 W · 104 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 46c | 96.76$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.51 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 75c | 95.4$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefa8…924ebacked Over | 20c | 73.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 51c | 58.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Over | 18c | 57.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 94 | 57.4%54 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 33c | 45.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 270 | 31.5%85 W · 185 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed Over | 30c | 34.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 161 | 60.9%98 W · 63 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54df…6cf5backed Under | 65c | 30.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5887…994ebacked Over | 43c | 28.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1956…1ef8backed Over | 52c | 28.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Under | 69c | 22.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 167 | 59.9%100 W · 67 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 53c | 22.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 650 | 58%377 W · 273 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 66c | 20.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 571 | 57.8%330 W · 241 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 67c | 17.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 411 | 45.5%187 W · 224 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Paranaense vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 2.5this page
- CA Paranaense vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CA Paranaense vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 1.5Over won
- CA Paranaense vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Associação Chapecoense de Futebol (-1.5)CA Paranaense won
- Spread: CA Paranaense (-1.5)CA Paranaense won
- Spread: CA Paranaense (-2.5)Associação Chapecoense de Futebol won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.