TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

South American Leagues · resolved market

Will Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. EC Vitória end in a draw?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,758
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,243

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,758 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4133…5e70backed No56c5,480$3,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,083.421,98544.8%890 W · 1,095 L-44.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Yes44c4,322$1,915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,407.531,29042.8%552 W · 738 L-2.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No4c1,683$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.25,75745.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L+94.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a49…d9f5backed No12c491.4$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.341,36652.4%716 W · 650 L+51.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Yes50c478.94$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.361,36244.9%611 W · 751 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe726…4c87backed Yes30c463.74$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.622733.3%9 W · 18 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2c8…c674backed No61c320$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No15c237.38$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5282434.5%284 W · 540 L-17.8wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed No70c210.98$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.691,48748.7%724 W · 763 L-17.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd851…4616backed Yes33c141.12$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.12944.8%13 W · 16 L+4.0wins+0.14per pick31cpaid+46.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x12f9…74babacked No66c113.22$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.341978.9%15 W · 4 L+4.2wins+0.22per pick57cpaid+74.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed No44c99.99$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.894848.1%456 W · 492 L-18.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0040…9eb8backed No61c97.66$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.5713351.1%68 W · 65 L-7.4wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf2ba…4028backed Yes32c95.92$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.2383642.9%359 W · 477 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe592…691abacked No16c83$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.281442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-36.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9720…2c24backed Yes31c75.64$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.424425%11 W · 33 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x75bd…0288backed Yes51c73.42$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.9728651.7%148 W · 138 L+14.5wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xad84…1897backed Yes36c53.42$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.1912439.5%49 W · 75 L-8.7wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-17.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed No35c53.27$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8971619.7%141 W · 575 L-49.1wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-32.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No69c52.77$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.412,38851.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L-9.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x004e…90f8backed Yes38c50.67$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.425026%13 W · 37 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-28.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe33d…9512backed Yes36c50.1$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.993444.1%15 W · 19 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8aef…9d05backed Yes31c49.48$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.141330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dda…8799backed No65c45.18$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.373658.3%21 W · 15 L-3.6wins-0.10per pick68cpaid-14.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes51c43.67$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.211,09155.6%607 W · 484 L-19.8wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Yes34c39.15$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.841,44456.4%815 W · 629 L+51.8wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b80…8b39backed Yes64c30.58$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.016943.5%30 W · 39 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55ab…4f88backed Yes76c20.59$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.9813451.5%69 W · 65 L+7.2wins+0.05per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No70c15.21$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.653,40551.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L+21.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.