MLB · resolved market
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08cea452289893ed2d6f4a04e3a77a6789c792b95d98f92b39a909faad44aa9c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami Marlinsof St. Louis Cardinals, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,967
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,976
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,967 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed St. Louis Cardinals | 21c | 4,601$944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$943.62 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Miami Marlins | 70c | 2,576$1,803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$772.92 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Miami Marlins | 64c | 1,763$1,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$628.48 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed St. Louis Cardinals | 40c | 1,046$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7693…470fbacked Miami Marlins | 61c | 343.69$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.04 | 213 | 54.5%116 W · 97 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed St. Louis Cardinals | 39c | 339.66$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.47 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 28c | 88.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 21c | 85.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…97bbbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked St. Louis Cardinals | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Miami Marlins | 67c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb1…8436backed St. Louis Cardinals | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 276 | 44.9%124 W · 152 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Miami Marlins | 72c | 40.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Miami Marlins | 71c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Miami Marlins | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Miami Marlins | 70c | 23.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Miami Marlins | 61c | 20.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Miami Marlins | 79c | 17.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Miami Marlins | 61c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Miami Marlins | 72c | 16.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)this page
- Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis CardinalsMiami Marlins won
- Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis CardinalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.