MLB · resolved market
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcae6416073fb0b67f3e5fd3c4d222f1ae9d53b5de33441b084fba0203292a416
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,345
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,369
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,345 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 66c | 7,112$4,679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,432.98 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 34c | 5,252$1,803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,803.42 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 35c | 3,298$1,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,151.63 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 68c | 2,680$1,822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$858.07 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…bd08backed Over | 49c | 2,003$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975 | 1,137 | 42.6%484 W · 653 L | +10.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 48c | 567.85$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.11 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Over | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 51c | 469.77$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.58 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 61c | 462.21$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.26 | 299 | 50.5%151 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Under | 49c | 460$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.6 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 51c | 420.99$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.71 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Under | 49c | 417.59$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.97 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Under | 49c | 299.99$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…000fbacked Over | 52c | 267.97$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 122 | 53.3%65 W · 57 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 73c | 234$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.18 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 55c | 172.42$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.9 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 47c | 164$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.49 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 44c | 134.56$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.68 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c85…9634backed Over | 37c | 109.71$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.02 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 48c | 93$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.36 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…b845backed Over | 52c | 90$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 268 | 60.4%162 W · 106 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe3…a9f7backed Under | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x117b…f017backed Under | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -4.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -34%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf9…3a59backed Under | 49c | 40.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 49c | 30.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d2…4268backed Over | 51c | 29.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 147 | 53.1%78 W · 69 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 49c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Under | 48c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf69f…ffeebacked Under | 45c | 26.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 58c | 25.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9dff…7fecbacked Under | 78c | 21.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf67d…2de1backed Under | 55c | 20.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 76c | 15.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Under | 80c | 13.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.68 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5this page
- Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis CardinalsMiami Marlins won
- Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis CardinalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.