Tennis · resolved market
Almaty Open: James Duckworth vs Daniil Medvedev
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08d010a4851884f7e9efb228648f754de4e4333a3bc3479a1b050086d6bb3ffe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Medvedevof Duckworth, Medvedev
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,051
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,178
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,051 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7606…2836backed Duckworth | 42c | 7,975$3,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,368.49 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Medvedev | 68c | 4,242$2,875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,366.52 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Medvedev | 65c | 4,108$2,657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,451.22 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3868…5683backed Duckworth | 25c | 3,999$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.72 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Duckworth | 34c | 3,997$1,354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,354.36 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Medvedev | 77c | 3,963$3,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$927.81 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56fb…3b99backed Duckworth | 10c | 3,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba6…0f07backed Duckworth | 17c | 3,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 669 | 49.6%332 W · 337 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Duckworth | 22c | 2,715$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.65 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Medvedev | 60c | 2,631$1,585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,046.2 | 1,446 | 48.8%706 W · 740 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Duckworth | 22c | 1,457$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.58 | 960 | 35.4%340 W · 620 L | -40.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Duckworth | 19c | 1,400$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.28 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cbb…374abacked Duckworth | 20c | 1,338$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked Medvedev | 55c | 1,325$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.22 | 158 | 32.3%51 W · 107 L | -13.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Duckworth | 25c | 1,217$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Duckworth | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,056 | 55.4%585 W · 471 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85e2…0980backed Medvedev | 62c | 700$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266 | 145 | 46.2%67 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa21d…a769backed Duckworth | 43c | 689.75$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.98 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Medvedev | 78c | 553.36$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.34 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Duckworth | 17c | 399.7$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.83 | 318 | 19.2%61 W · 257 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Medvedev | 79c | 359.39$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.99 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa263…6cf0backed Medvedev | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.83 | 175 | 38.3%67 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…66b0backed Duckworth | 17c | 309.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5c…48f9backed Medvedev | 59c | 299.99$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 154 | 47.4%73 W · 81 L | +14.1wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Medvedev | 73c | 291.58$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.62 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Duckworth | 19c | 260$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 444 | 23.9%106 W · 338 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Duckworth | 25c | 210$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.35 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b6…b02ebacked Duckworth | 18c | 194.44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 115 | 33.9%39 W · 76 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Duckworth | 21c | 145.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Medvedev | 78c | 129.21$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.31 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73c4…a92dbacked Duckworth | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Duckworth | 15c | 110.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Medvedev | 61c | 108.06$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.06 | 606 | 41.6%252 W · 354 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f83…7252backed Duckworth | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -7.3wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2dae…a50bbacked Duckworth | 42c | 96.81$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.66 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a4…333bbacked Medvedev | 72c | 87.4$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Duckworth | 17c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 238 | 52.1%124 W · 114 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Duckworth | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Medvedev | 78c | 44.87$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 360 | 47.2%170 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed Medvedev | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 313 | 39.9%125 W · 188 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.