Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: Karmine Corp GC vs SK Nebula (BO3) - VCT Game Changers EMEA Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08de6bd54dfb28a9137e75beaddd91d5c4d27249cf02dedbb3785d8487811804
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- SK Nebulaof Karmine Corp GC, SK Nebula
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,641
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,950
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,641 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Karmine Corp GC | 69c | 1,311$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900.84 | 321 | 41.7%134 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba38…e406backed SK Nebula | 31c | 1,163$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$802.64 | 547 | 51.2%280 W · 267 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab96…989fbacked Karmine Corp GC | 68c | 749.52$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.28 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | -11.0wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9500…d55cbacked Karmine Corp GC | 4c | 747$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40ad…f79dbacked Karmine Corp GC | 4c | 434$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed SK Nebula | 32c | 320.5$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.94 | 256 | 60.9%156 W · 100 L | +22.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed SK Nebula | 34c | 291.2$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.81 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked SK Nebula | 32c | 200$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 199 | 43.7%87 W · 112 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Karmine Corp GC | 69c | 192.75$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.09 | 543 | 42.4%230 W · 313 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d29…8264backed Karmine Corp GC | 68c | 169.21$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 67cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x805b…ee0cbacked SK Nebula | 46c | 141.08$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.78 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked SK Nebula | 34c | 138.47$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.87 | 1,608 | 45.2%727 W · 881 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7248…8cb4backed Karmine Corp GC | 66c | 86.96$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.39 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed SK Nebula | 31c | 74.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.61 | 1,490 | 46.6%695 W · 795 L | -16.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7242…ac6fbacked SK Nebula | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.53 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8726…0f36backed SK Nebula | 31c | 73$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.37 | 230 | 55.7%128 W · 102 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…0d2abacked Karmine Corp GC | 53c | 70.42$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.34 | 310 | 46.5%144 W · 166 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d70…fdd9backed SK Nebula | 32c | 63.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.95 | 452 | 50%226 W · 226 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f9…b54ebacked Karmine Corp GC | 34c | 43.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd02a…4771backed Karmine Corp GC | 73c | 38.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed SK Nebula | 32c | 35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 636 | 52.7%335 W · 301 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…72c0backed SK Nebula | 45c | 26.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 50cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x045a…b9a4backed Karmine Corp GC | 60c | 18.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.