Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Celtic FC vs. AS Roma end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08f9aa23615404a64b9a136788698cc561839f30353388c0fc7988210e5d9fa3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,328
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,416
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,328 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x303b…53cabacked Yes | 1c | 1,215$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2575…bf1ebacked Yes | 29c | 857.99$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 29c | 826$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.35 | 199 | 34.7%69 W · 130 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…cb8abacked No | 71c | 811.87$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 78c | 789.1$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.23 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 75c | 779.98$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.82 | 2,999 | 42.4%1,273 W · 1,726 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 29c | 573$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.17 | 147 | 40.8%60 W · 87 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 122 | 47.5%58 W · 64 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b59…6445backed Yes | 29c | 358$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.82 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 29c | 350.4$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.97 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked No | 71c | 315.18$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.4 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed No | 71c | 300$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 103 | 60.2%62 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 71c | 260.76$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.75 | 338 | 47%159 W · 179 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc079…8accbacked Yes | 30c | 225$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x086f…8bc3backed Yes | 20c | 211$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.29 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60fc…1031backed Yes | 29c | 169.1$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -39%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 70c | 158$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.4 | 449 | 52.6%236 W · 213 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 71c | 152.25$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.15 | 428 | 44.9%192 W · 236 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d33…e208backed Yes | 29c | 151.72$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…5ba4backed Yes | 15c | 111.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -58%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b90…30b6backed Yes | 20c | 100.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c44…a1aabacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 30cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7543…1852backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 80c | 94.73$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee09…1199backed No | 72c | 79.17$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…0672backed Yes | 28c | 78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 27c | 74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 379 | 26.1%99 W · 280 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68e1…cc69backed Yes | 29c | 72.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb4…8830backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeac8…bca4backed No | 73c | 68.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…05cfbacked No | 71c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 23c | 57.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 361 | 36%130 W · 231 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6024…d4f0backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb94…04f4backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9f…0852backed No | 73c | 42.82$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 37 | 81.1%30 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…24adbacked No | 72c | 39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.29per pick | 59cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Yes | 29c | 37.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 145 | 33.1%48 W · 97 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03de…4bfdbacked No | 70c | 33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -4.5wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 71c | 27.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1d…f32cbacked No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x521c…64d2backed No | 72c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a17…5524backed No | 73c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 18 | 94.4%17 W · 1 L | +3.5wins | +0.20per pick | 75cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked No | 75c | 20.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d6…b1b3backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x891e…ea69backed No | 72c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked No | 71c | 17.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4292…938dbacked No | 72c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 64cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcad…0a68backed No | 72c | 14.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Celtic FC vs. AS Roma end in a draw?this page
- Will AS Roma win on 2025-12-11?Yes won
- Will Celtic FC win on 2025-12-11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.