TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Game Handicap: GL (-1.5) vs the bug (+1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
GamerLegionof GamerLegion, the bug
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,945
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,881

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,945 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1c98…186dbacked the bug21c692.68$149 inLost-$148.545556.4%31 W · 24 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e11…d36ebacked the bug10c400$39 inLost-$39.2825%2 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-44.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7d6…cab5backed GamerLegion78c340.82$267 inWon+$74.251364.9%333 W · 180 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa2c3…0566backed GamerLegion78c300$234 inWon+$668150.6%41 W · 40 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-16.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2e7c…164dbacked the bug20c203$40 inLost-$40.48248.8%40 W · 42 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5de7…5417backed the bug20c166$33 inLost-$33.0347951.8%248 W · 231 L+17.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x58f8…dc70backed GamerLegion80c106.93$86 inWon+$21.396261.3%38 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57ab…ad7dbacked the bug22c63.72$14 inLost-$13.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe24f…614abacked the bug20c50$10 inLost-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.