Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: the bug vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04a6e58fddd88d39c87dbc770a0c734b018bf1352c17809780b6fb3ef5f4f419
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- GamerLegionof the bug, GamerLegion
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,540
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,212
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,540 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf81…6e25backed the bug | 8c | 13,006$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc41e…e2e9backed the bug | 3c | 1,521$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.26 | 37 | 5.4%2 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x048f…9992backed the bug | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 211 | 0.5%1 W · 210 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -99.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed the bug | 9c | 895.37$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.81 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…2d72backed the bug | 8c | 717.59$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.31 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked the bug | 5c | 712.49$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.95 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed the bug | 3c | 674.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 87 | 28.7%25 W · 62 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked the bug | 5c | 632.68$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…021ebacked the bug | 4c | 562$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94cb…64e3backed the bug | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 188 | 30.9%58 W · 130 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d28…ad7cbacked the bug | 8c | 416.67$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf20b…e27dbacked the bug | 10c | 313.65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 117 | 46.2%54 W · 63 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked the bug | 9c | 300$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 264 | 45.1%119 W · 145 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked the bug | 7c | 286.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 569 | 45.2%257 W · 312 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…0d2abacked the bug | 13c | 255.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 161 | 47.2%76 W · 85 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed the bug | 8c | 160$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 691 | 32.6%225 W · 466 L | -26.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4a…98c7backed the bug | 11c | 140.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: the bug vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: the bug vs GamerLegion (BO3) - The International North America Closed Qualifier PlayoffsGamerLegion won
- Dota 2: the bug vs GamerLegion - Game 1 WinnerGamerLegion won
- Game Handicap: GL (-1.5) vs the bug (+1.5)GamerLegion won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.