Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: the bug vs GamerLegion (BO3) - The International North America Closed Qualifier Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaba79b58f7e15be9a281416ce6a127699232ba5c6fefe9ac9ed2b7144687b867
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- GamerLegionof the bug, GamerLegion
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,677
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,161
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,677 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf81…6e25backed the bug | 11c | 3,596$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked the bug | 4c | 2,919$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.04 | 237 | 36.7%87 W · 150 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked the bug | 1c | 1,380$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 56 | 1.8%1 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -77%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x048f…9992backed the bug | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 211 | 0.5%1 W · 210 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -99.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36d8…c7c7backed the bug | 4c | 744.61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 233 | 42.9%100 W · 133 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42dd…5d2bbacked the bug | 4c | 735$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…0d2abacked the bug | 7c | 655.43$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.88 | 161 | 47.2%76 W · 85 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddc…9c0fbacked the bug | 5c | 588.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed the bug | 4c | 290.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 381 | 42%160 W · 221 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c3…1be2backed the bug | 4c | 247.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffa…7710backed the bug | 4c | 233.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked GamerLegion | 73c | 161$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.43 | 665 | 45.6%303 W · 362 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed GamerLegion | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 502 | 47.6%239 W · 263 L | +31.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa781…8745backed GamerLegion | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: the bug vs GamerLegion (BO3) - The International North America Closed Qualifier Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: the bug vs GamerLegion - Game 1 WinnerGamerLegion won
- Dota 2: the bug vs GamerLegion - Game 2 WinnerGamerLegion won
- Game Handicap: GL (-1.5) vs the bug (+1.5)GamerLegion won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.