Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: the bug vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa48b5db32c19069485d6414e5ae8ae23977346ff7e1c1d01a73a20364fb6ed7b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- GamerLegionof the bug, GamerLegion
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,065
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,433
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,065 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf81…6e25backed the bug | 10c | 6,177$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked the bug | 13c | 2,648$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.29 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff4…d731backed the bug | 7c | 1,459$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.98 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f0…9384backed the bug | 9c | 817.5$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…38e8backed the bug | 3c | 804.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 332 | 3%10 W · 322 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f4…88e6backed the bug | 19c | 759.76$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.85 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbe…f8b0backed the bug | 7c | 710$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d5…180abacked the bug | 9c | 627$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.43 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94cb…64e3backed the bug | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 188 | 30.9%58 W · 130 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked the bug | 11c | 300$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 264 | 45.1%119 W · 145 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf20b…e27dbacked the bug | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 117 | 46.2%54 W · 63 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcef…fd7fbacked the bug | 9c | 242$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…186dbacked the bug | 8c | 227.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa533…755fbacked the bug | 10c | 209.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked the bug | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 669 | 47.1%315 W · 354 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…b027backed the bug | 9c | 196$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed the bug | 7c | 175$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 479 | 51.8%248 W · 231 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed the bug | 8c | 163.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed the bug | 7c | 160$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 691 | 32.6%225 W · 466 L | -26.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed the bug | 10c | 160$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…d8c0backed the bug | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 161 | 52.2%84 W · 77 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x703b…e371backed GamerLegion | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 515 | 44.9%231 W · 284 L | +40.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked GamerLegion | 80c | 66.07$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked GamerLegion | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 535 | 38.5%206 W · 329 L | -26.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: the bug vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: the bug vs GamerLegion (BO3) - The International North America Closed Qualifier PlayoffsGamerLegion won
- Dota 2: the bug vs GamerLegion - Game 2 WinnerGamerLegion won
- Game Handicap: GL (-1.5) vs the bug (+1.5)GamerLegion won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.