Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x091cf40854689ccc7111a3cae95587e8d8a384bba6cf91eaf4744ecf111bc82f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rune Eatersof VP.Prodigy, Rune Eaters
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,003
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,031
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,003 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed VP.Prodigy | 43c | 999.26$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.68 | 569 | 55.5%316 W · 253 L | +22.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…4f5ebacked Rune Eaters | 57c | 936.03$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.49 | 368 | 51.6%190 W · 178 L | +25.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked VP.Prodigy | 11c | 576.08$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.37 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17ca…87d1backed Rune Eaters | 79c | 325.3$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.47 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | -15.2wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -15%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x540d…c8f9backed VP.Prodigy | 29c | 299.87$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.9 | 388 | 55.2%214 W · 174 L | +29.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x949e…20afbacked VP.Prodigy | 42c | 86.71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.33 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2416…6e91backed VP.Prodigy | 41c | 75.72$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 386 | 53.9%208 W · 178 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06d9…7cfbbacked Rune Eaters | 73c | 70$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 201 | 51.2%103 W · 98 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93af…32abbacked Rune Eaters | 59c | 67.21$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 107 | 51.4%55 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed Rune Eaters | 58c | 50.2$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 361 | 38.2%138 W · 223 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5cc…ed79backed VP.Prodigy | 56c | 35.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd866…55e0backed Rune Eaters | 58c | 31.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…81c5backed Rune Eaters | 60c | 24.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 84 | 48.8%41 W · 43 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2df…2368backed Rune Eaters | 63c | 23.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed Rune Eaters | 51c | 21.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Rune Eaters | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Rune Eaters | 62c | 16.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Play-In Group AVP.Prodigy won
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 WinnerVP.Prodigy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.