Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 4°C on February 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0947b2c820f92e33ce2298e0740185dbc82c6d92c68708d7a8ad7689b4fc4e81
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,666
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,000
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,666 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe3bc…bbc7backed Yes | 2c | 1,585$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed No | 70c | 1,044$731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.48 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 24c | 822.67$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.69 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 11c | 779.12$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.29 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 40c | 430$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.77 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 32c | 332.53$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.59 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 30c | 302.18$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.7 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7b…bd59backed No | 71c | 299.99$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 58c | 220.63$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.17 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4c…631cbacked No | 50c | 200$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.52 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +3.5wins | +0.25per pick | 54cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 55c | 175.26$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.57 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cd…043fbacked Yes | 70c | 163.96$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.45 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa301…b4efbacked Yes | 66c | 161.41$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.32 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 160.89$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.19 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf393…d509backed No | 45c | 130.32$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.82 | 22 | 100%22 W · 0 L | +9.2wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xf84d…5e65backed Yes | 78c | 128.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4914…722ebacked Yes | 40c | 115.13$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 59c | 107.95$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.76 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeee…7c09backed No | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.09 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6405…7d19backed No | 31c | 99.98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.79 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb400…4e85backed Yes | 58c | 94.93$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.06 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 36c | 94.62$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.6 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 72c | 88$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.76 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 48c | 85.78$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.61 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…8a56backed Yes | 61c | 81.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x726c…e6f0backed Yes | 35c | 81.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 72c | 80$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.72 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b66…3907backed Yes | 29c | 78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39b7…675cbacked No | 52c | 78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 68c | 77.94$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.93 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2352…eec9backed Yes | 54c | 76.35$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0f…50bebacked Yes | 71c | 70.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 39c | 69$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.32 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 47c | 66.38$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d7…9600backed No | 56c | 65$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 52c | 64.15$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 60.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x918b…da5dbacked Yes | 32c | 59.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf864…496fbacked No | 53c | 54.07$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.28 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 61c | 53.69$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 50c | 51.31$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.66 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x536d…3152backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 120 | 73.3%88 W · 32 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 61c | 49.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 67c | 41.73$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe88…e756backed Yes | 50c | 40.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +46%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 38c | 40.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 50c | 39.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 74c | 33.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea4…2bd2backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4653…fc2bbacked Yes | 64c | 31.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…8f0bbacked Yes | 73c | 31.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 103 | 27.2%28 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78bd…15edbacked Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 67c | 29.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 52c | 29.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 49c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d14…abaebacked Yes | 58c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes | 65c | 24.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58d8…ab98backed No | 51c | 20.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +72%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35b3…8d9bbacked Yes | 57c | 17.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 72c | 14.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 4°C on February 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be -1°C or below on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 0°C on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 1°C on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 2°C on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 3°C on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 5°C on February 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C or higher on February 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.