Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 3°C on February 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1415d5888dceea33cec1827e7fd89a45a6e095d66ff491bc99a39e17864984a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,223
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,298
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,223 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 5,664$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe88…e756backed Yes | 1c | 1,037$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +46%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 80c | 686.99$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.73 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdf…a680backed Yes | 16c | 405.55$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.16 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 7c | 339.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 5c | 331.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 20c | 305.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.13 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 14c | 289.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 21c | 251.43$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.93 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 74c | 169.41$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.71 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 166.07$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf707…20f0backed No | 79c | 163.18$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.66 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 14c | 147.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…3296backed Yes | 24c | 140$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 28c | 137.95$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.56 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 23c | 130.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 20c | 126.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 78c | 115.41$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.01 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 15c | 112.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 18c | 111.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 22c | 108.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 33c | 108$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 18c | 106.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fea…5685backed No | 79c | 106.3$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 13c | 98.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 80c | 91.45$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 18c | 86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.85 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x089b…c619backed No | 76c | 78.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 75 | 76%57 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 24c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 73c | 68.48$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 30c | 68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 18c | 67.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b2…4951backed No | 75c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x536d…3152backed No | 77c | 49.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 120 | 73.3%88 W · 32 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 23c | 49.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked No | 77c | 48.26$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3753…8f6ebacked No | 75c | 46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 71c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b66…3907backed Yes | 26c | 43.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x505e…1c76backed Yes | 26c | 42.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 73c | 42.8$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 179 | 78.8%141 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 78cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 76c | 40.46$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecc…bd0bbacked No | 79c | 39.75$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 79c | 31.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 73c | 27.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 78c | 25.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81a2…5cdabacked No | 78c | 21.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 58 | 72.4%42 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc744…955cbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…5abdbacked No | 77c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.26per pick | 59cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 74c | 19.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf465…8a3bbacked No | 77c | 18.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 40 | 80%32 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 68c | 15.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed No | 69c | 15.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x520b…100abacked No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 85 | 65.9%56 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 3°C on February 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be -1°C or below on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 0°C on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 1°C on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 2°C on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 4°C on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 5°C on February 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C or higher on February 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.