Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 5°C on February 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26af0e294d6eeebb233740835b73de6387e4076386a891b8e10543dbbe3b527c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,625
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,673
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,625 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 12c | 2,295$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 60c | 779.12$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.68 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 28c | 472.24$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.11 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 37c | 401.09$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.8 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 6c | 359.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 53c | 324.51$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.22 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed No | 70c | 251.31$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.29 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 218.03$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.92 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 19c | 215.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eee…bac2backed No | 70c | 200$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.2 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -6.3wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 171.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.07 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 11c | 145.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.6 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 12c | 142.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.34 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 9c | 138$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.58 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef22…441dbacked Yes | 65c | 133.98$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.23 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +20.3wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6405…7d19backed No | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb400…4e85backed Yes | 25c | 97.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.91 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdf…a680backed Yes | 17c | 84.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.8 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 26c | 82.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.57 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3271…cd33backed Yes | 28c | 80.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 135 | 31.1%42 W · 93 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 24c | 80.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.83 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 20c | 79.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.6 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 59c | 75.23$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.43 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x252b…dfc9backed Yes | 15c | 74.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.04 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 27c | 72.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.97 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 74c | 70.92$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 27c | 63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.85 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 44c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.58 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 28c | 59.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d8…0c8cbacked Yes | 22c | 55.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.69 | 169 | 24.3%41 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 75c | 54.49$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.87 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aef…1c2dbacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x536d…3152backed No | 73c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 120 | 73.3%88 W · 32 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 67c | 49$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0f…50bebacked Yes | 25c | 46.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.85 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe18d…960abacked No | 78c | 39.7$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 76c | 35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf413…3f6cbacked No | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 76c | 28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…dbfdbacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4653…fc2bbacked No | 78c | 16.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22ab…d485backed No | 69c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.32per pick | 50cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 5°C on February 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be -1°C or below on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 0°C on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 1°C on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 2°C on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 3°C on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 4°C on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C or higher on February 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.