Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on May 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0956a821fa7bcb9c2b85f9cce65393380f9a8a2e71a9332869750e32568c85c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,390
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,166
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,390 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x80c7…d9c5backed No | 75c | 314.65$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.42 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 26c | 253$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.52 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb719…c1e1backed No | 50c | 208$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes | 50c | 160$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 112.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked Yes | 48c | 61.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…78d0backed No | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 59.42$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 19c | 56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c6f…b509backed Yes | 30c | 56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8283…bd68backed No | 70c | 55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 50c | 52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 48c | 51.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4e3…8668backed No | 70c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a8…ac0ebacked Yes | 30c | 44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 50c | 43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 38c | 40.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 47c | 37.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked Yes | 45c | 33.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 47c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 61c | 27.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9954…b725backed No | 70c | 26.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 48c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 53c | 20.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 68c | 20.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fae…a4bebacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 82 | 28%23 W · 59 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f1…c062backed No | 70c | 14.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on May 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C or below on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on May 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on May 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.