Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: Nemiga (-1.5) vs Team AION (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x095a613747bf16e3bdadd1698408b4a73cb97476e50d71716e0786acdcfbdd9d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team AIONof Nemiga Gaming, Team AION
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,740
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,693
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,740 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf3b…0375backed Nemiga Gaming | 40c | 699.99$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 122 | 50%61 W · 61 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Team AION | 59c | 508.67$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.85 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Team AION | 60c | 447.4$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.49 | 308 | 44.8%138 W · 170 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Team AION | 40c | 438.72$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.77 | 405 | 34.6%140 W · 265 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked Team AION | 58c | 424.99$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.59 | 222 | 40.1%89 W · 133 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7004…a778backed Nemiga Gaming | 67c | 206.12$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.1 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +100.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Nemiga Gaming | 39c | 194.34$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.79 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Nemiga Gaming | 38c | 158.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.17 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Team AION | 45c | 145.03$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.34 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Nemiga Gaming | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Team AION | 33c | 81$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.27 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa7…afb4backed Team AION | 45c | 80$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.65 | 68 | 57.4%39 W · 29 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabbc…04a3backed Team AION | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26d0…566ebacked Team AION | 34c | 61.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.76 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2526…218ebacked Nemiga Gaming | 66c | 61.76$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.76 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Team AION | 53c | 59.45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.94 | 503 | 53.9%271 W · 232 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Nemiga Gaming | 58c | 56.9$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x76b5…a423backed Nemiga Gaming | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Nemiga Gaming | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Nemiga Gaming | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Nemiga Gaming | 58c | 42.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb09a…89adbacked Nemiga Gaming | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c62…ca89backed Nemiga Gaming | 47c | 39.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked Nemiga Gaming | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Team AION | 65c | 26.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 430 | 67%288 W · 142 L | +31.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Nemiga Gaming | 53c | 20.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: Nemiga (-1.5) vs Team AION (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Team AION (BO3) - European Pro League Group ATeam AION won
- Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Team AION - Game 1 WinnerNemiga Gaming won
- Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Team AION - Game 2 WinnerTeam AION won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.