Other European Leagues · resolved market
Casa Pia AC vs. CD Tondela: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09899053ad9fc27d6469b1ce91d26a87f0f66e9b61f75d01a7bd2f5dc7be4c3e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,214
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,486
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,214 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 33c | 1,532$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 168 | 26.2%44 W · 124 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 55c | 1,059$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.72 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 60c | 817.78$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.4 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 72c | 746.53$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.75 | 920 | 43.4%399 W · 521 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 75c | 458$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.5 | 501 | 46.1%231 W · 270 L | -17.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 69c | 435.14$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.6 | 1,282 | 50.2%644 W · 638 L | -25.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec59…bb35backed Over | 22c | 403.68$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.77 | 90 | 61.1%55 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Over | 27c | 297.18$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.44 | 103 | 23.3%24 W · 79 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d62…5409backed Over | 70c | 286.13$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 25c | 209.27$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.32 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49bc…0413backed Over | 33c | 167.24$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd53c…5194backed Over | 27c | 160$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…e1bdbacked Over | 30c | 160$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed Over | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 144 | 68.8%99 W · 45 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 30c | 138.22$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.75 | 852 | 50.4%429 W · 423 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 30c | 136.18$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.06 | 235 | 46.8%110 W · 125 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaad3…d0d2backed Under | 58c | 129.4$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 938 | 45.4%426 W · 512 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 30c | 83.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.78 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 31c | 72.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.82 | 79 | 10.1%8 W · 71 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 33c | 58.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 892 | 58.2%519 W · 373 L | +58.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x933d…4118backed Over | 31c | 55.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a30…b094backed Over | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Under | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d5…2b9cbacked Over | 44c | 44.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -3.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 34c | 43.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 278 | 64.4%179 W · 99 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Over | 52c | 25.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 70c | 24.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 536 | 55.2%296 W · 240 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea65…d27dbacked Over | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 72 | 76.4%55 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 69c | 19.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 1,159 | 60.7%703 W · 456 L | +68.5wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Casa Pia AC vs. CD Tondela: O/U 1.5this page
- Casa Pia AC vs. CD Tondela: O/U 2.5Under won
- Casa Pia AC vs. CD Tondela: O/U 3.5Under won
- Casa Pia AC vs. CD Tondela: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Casa Pia AC (-2.5)CD Tondela won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.