Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on February 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09bd7ea7f3d943fddda2b33db10a08135fcbc1766f2672e8b8f154729a6be439
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,488
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,429
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,488 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 5c | 818.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.58 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf516…1ea1backed Yes | 60c | 404.55$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.59 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 6c | 359.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa3…5a51backed Yes | 35c | 249.35$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.08 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 198.2$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.32 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 66c | 180.72$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.48 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 21c | 174.43$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.77 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 70c | 160.7$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.48 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 12c | 149.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 70c | 148.95$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.83 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 70c | 139.64$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.48 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 70c | 134.51$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.04 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba79…bd1fbacked Yes | 61c | 126.83$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec0c…8589backed Yes | 55c | 108$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.03 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a35…6387backed Yes | 41c | 91.18$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.5 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd205…e7fbbacked Yes | 51c | 83.85$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.44 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 25cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 65$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed No | 49c | 58.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 153 | 30.7%47 W · 106 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 67c | 57.83$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes | 44c | 57.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.36 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 37c | 57.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 39c | 57.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x324b…3fe4backed Yes | 53c | 56.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.82 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 33c | 55.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4635…6c48backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 57c | 54.87$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 71c | 52.46$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.25 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d73…43f6backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 116 | 19.8%23 W · 93 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 47c | 49.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0574…e49fbacked Yes | 30c | 48.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32a8…4043backed Yes | 34c | 43.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.01 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69b2…e50abacked Yes | 46c | 43.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.55 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -6.5wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4cef…959ebacked No | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa888…d805backed No | 38c | 39.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb71c…97efbacked No | 56c | 39.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 71cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe82…7056backed Yes | 51c | 39.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe311…a16fbacked No | 54c | 36.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 52c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeff…7353backed Yes | 78c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…8809backed Yes | 52c | 32.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f87…9120backed Yes | 37c | 31.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 64c | 31.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 55c | 28.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 37c | 27.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…85d4backed No | 69c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebfc…46e8backed No | 68c | 21.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…ba96backed Yes | 70c | 21.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4950…d8edbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x520b…100abacked No | 65c | 19.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 85 | 65.9%56 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on February 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 76°F or higher on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 62-63°F on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 66-67°F on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 68-69°F on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on February 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.