Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on February 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e16111a232538bef7f5afc0d7fe698e296bf6bd314fb49d33dad2b2569ef076
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,118
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,473
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,118 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 12c | 395.32$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.14 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 77c | 357.7$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.08 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xab37…467bbacked Yes | 37c | 269.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 14c | 243.42$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 7c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 70c | 174.48$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.06 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 158.17$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.85 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 8c | 150.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d2…e592backed Yes | 17c | 147.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 28c | 142.89$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.53 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 23c | 126.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 40c | 120.27$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.53 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 38c | 110.69$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.38 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a35…6387backed Yes | 38c | 89.3$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.85 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 62c | 81.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.89 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba79…bd1fbacked Yes | 49c | 79.7$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed Yes | 21c | 79.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 153 | 30.7%47 W · 106 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 16c | 76.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0574…e49fbacked Yes | 20c | 71.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd205…e7fbbacked Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 25cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2520…b197backed Yes | 33c | 67.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 62c | 63.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe82…7056backed Yes | 39c | 51.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed Yes | 36c | 50.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d73…43f6backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 116 | 19.8%23 W · 93 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed Yes | 36c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 61c | 44.56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.42 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 28c | 40.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0609…b093backed Yes | 35c | 39.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf21b…5121backed No | 66c | 32.52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 64c | 32.06$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x531e…a7b3backed Yes | 47c | 31.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f87…9120backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed No | 70c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…85d4backed No | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 70c | 24.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96fc…721bbacked No | 66c | 18.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on February 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 76°F or higher on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 62-63°F on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 66-67°F on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 68-69°F on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on February 25?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.