Tennis · resolved market
China Open: Eva Lys vs McCartney Kessler
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09e8f5abfcf6517aeef83478e93f1cfc98f623aed81ff8da77306198a291ffcd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lysof Lys, Kessler
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,248
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,582
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,248 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed Kessler | 39c | 6,026$2,366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,365.51 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Kessler | 49c | 3,265$1,608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,608 | 198 | 35.4%70 W · 128 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Lys | 51c | 2,866$1,462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,404.43 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Lys | 55c | 2,807$1,546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,261.21 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Lys | 66c | 1,357$889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.81 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Kessler | 47c | 1,125$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.44 | 364 | 40.9%149 W · 215 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf97…beb5backed Lys | 54c | 829.73$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.53 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Lys | 52c | 816.25$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.45 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Lys | 63c | 716.2$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.06 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Lys | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 281 | 41.6%117 W · 164 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Kessler | 48c | 440$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.2 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4192…7f00backed Lys | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Kessler | 47c | 328$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.16 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Kessler | 63c | 228$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.5 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Lys | 46c | 219.71$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.92 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3020…bc04backed Lys | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Kessler | 15c | 197.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.17 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…d4d8backed Lys | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Lys | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e6…e838backed Kessler | 33c | 155$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.4 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Lys | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5c…48f9backed Lys | 68c | 142.63$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.64 | 154 | 47.4%73 W · 81 L | +14.1wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Lys | 37c | 133.93$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.43 | 496 | 32.3%160 W · 336 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…ff34backed Lys | 25c | 120$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 121 | 34.7%42 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Lys | 53c | 112$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.64 | 183 | 38.8%71 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Kessler | 63c | 109.52$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Lys | 48c | 95.23$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.52 | 960 | 35.4%340 W · 620 L | -40.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed Lys | 69c | 91.01$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 173 | 49.1%85 W · 88 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb78d…1d48backed Lys | 67c | 89.66$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.66 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c0a…0684backed Lys | 43c | 82.23$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.87 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Kessler | 68c | 70$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 132 | 45.5%60 W · 72 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc0…8e5abacked Lys | 52c | 61.17$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacff…3872backed Lys | 39c | 56.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.41 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…04d8backed Lys | 53c | 51.42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 141 | 40.4%57 W · 84 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Lys | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Lys | 60c | 41.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48d6…bbb9backed Lys | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6746…2093backed Lys | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.