Premier League · resolved market
Southampton FC vs. Millwall FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09e99d8431db1f6f9d9c791bb4fbfa922a92c18ad66f64a54ba62f81b124d092
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,805
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,512
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,805 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 48c | 8,096$3,886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,209.96 | 506 | 44.3%224 W · 282 L | -14.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 4,679$2,534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,144.88 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 42c | 4,296$1,806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,806.27 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe916…4563backed Over | 42c | 3,563$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 107 | 37.4%40 W · 67 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24d8…e8a8backed Over | 52c | 3,000$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,560 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 47c | 2,543$1,207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,206.65 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1748…a816backed Over | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.99 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +4.4wins | +0.23per pick | 51cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 51c | 627.45$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 52c | 487.5$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.55 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae8…c2a8backed Over | 48c | 222$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.56 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…f1bebacked Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…04f9backed Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1df…4404backed Over | 32c | 179.94$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.58 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | -8.5wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28bb…d0d6backed Under | 50c | 169.99$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.24 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 55c | 130.49$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.77 | 584 | 45.9%268 W · 316 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0082…e801backed Over | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 47c | 124$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.72 | 1,283 | 48%616 W · 667 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa686…8fccbacked Over | 36c | 85.81$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Over | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 201 | 50.2%101 W · 100 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 57c | 58.16$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1aa…071abacked Over | 51c | 47.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb85e…e18dbacked Over | 49c | 46.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc8…8198backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 110 | 60.9%67 W · 43 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 34c | 34.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Southampton FC vs. Millwall FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Southampton FC vs. Millwall FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Southampton FC vs. Millwall FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Southampton FC vs. Millwall FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Southampton FC vs. Millwall FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Southampton FC (-1.5)Millwall FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.