CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a24dddddac6003ee514e160081b2e9185ca0ee2e59108749c8cb82f92a44a06
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Natus Vincereof FURIA, Natus Vincere
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,765
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,431
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,765 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4b9b…7e7cbacked FURIA | 33c | 909.09$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 210 | 42.9%90 W · 120 L | -12.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd2…f8a0backed Natus Vincere | 67c | 887.47$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.99 | 187 | 52.4%98 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed FURIA | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x423f…eedcbacked Natus Vincere | 70c | 149.95$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.14 | 406 | 55.7%226 W · 180 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41a3…017dbacked Natus Vincere | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 451 | 62.3%281 W · 170 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7039…913fbacked Natus Vincere | 72c | 139.43$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.44 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Natus Vincere | 67c | 110.45$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.45 | 812 | 44.3%360 W · 452 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4e…5973backed FURIA | 33c | 43.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…604ebacked FURIA | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 821 | 46.3%380 W · 441 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked FURIA | 31c | 36.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 1,281 | 37.8%484 W · 797 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd468…f6febacked Natus Vincere | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 460 | 42.8%197 W · 263 L | +16.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa23c…ae92backed Natus Vincere | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0e…8763backed Natus Vincere | 70c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 225 | 51.1%115 W · 110 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…9240backed FURIA | 64c | 17.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group AFURIA won
- Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 WinnerFURIA won
- Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.