NHL · resolved market
Jets vs. Sabres
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a4ff9e1ab0160815dc914c34950284b1c2da793e04bd0e5f0339fc22de99cd5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jetsof Jets, Sabres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,857
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,459
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,857 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Sabres | 43c | 1,151$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.03 | 448 | 48.9%219 W · 229 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa3…dc66backed Jets | 57c | 1,016$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Sabres | 43c | 1,012$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.28 | 1,025 | 40.8%418 W · 607 L | +15.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Jets | 57c | 1,000$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.39 | 851 | 48.5%413 W · 438 L | -48.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…039abacked Sabres | 41c | 987.73$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.97 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…3cf2backed Sabres | 42c | 832.91$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.82 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73b7…9360backed Jets | 59c | 800$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.98 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Sabres | 47c | 509.99$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.44 | 355 | 45.4%161 W · 194 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20cc…ebc0backed Sabres | 42c | 382.6$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.64 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b41…e0d3backed Jets | 58c | 238$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.96 | 244 | 57.4%140 W · 104 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6788…79d6backed Jets | 59c | 221.86$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Jets | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.05 | 1,037 | 55%570 W · 467 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Jets | 59c | 180$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.99 | 1,039 | 55.2%574 W · 465 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Jets | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 724 | 48.3%350 W · 374 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e20…f3e7backed Jets | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c91…0505backed Jets | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Sabres | 41c | 145.41$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.62 | 313 | 34.8%109 W · 204 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb299…4a62backed Jets | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 731 | 57.5%420 W · 311 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Jets | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x177e…a572backed Jets | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9a…cb4dbacked Jets | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Sabres | 42c | 99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.58 | 818 | 46%376 W · 442 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd829…3fc4backed Jets | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ad…f186backed Jets | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 135 | 62.2%84 W · 51 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98b4…5d76backed Jets | 56c | 82.51$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.63 | 301 | 55.1%166 W · 135 L | +17.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa32b…e132backed Sabres | 38c | 81.02$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2686…7a67backed Jets | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 96 | 65.6%63 W · 33 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20b3…bf06backed Jets | 57c | 61.4$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Jets | 50c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 928 | 48.5%450 W · 478 L | +17.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Jets | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 508 | 57.7%293 W · 215 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x479f…bb7dbacked Jets | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf543…cedfbacked Jets | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf93b…bb37backed Sabres | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a32…ae7bbacked Jets | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb8…9231backed Sabres | 45c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17a…1db3backed Jets | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfce4…7addbacked Jets | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa591…9079backed Jets | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x438e…9704backed Sabres | 63c | 25.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 170 | 54.7%93 W · 77 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Sabres | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd31…4f6dbacked Jets | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb541…947fbacked Jets | 56c | 21.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5b…8529backed Jets | 72c | 18.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca03…e878backed Sabres | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.27per pick | 64cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.