TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Games Total: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$28,790
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$30,225

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,790 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x678c…1debbacked Over36c5,683$2,046 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,637.131650%8 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Under64c5,555$3,555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,555.216842.9%72 W · 96 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8688…9d8cbacked Over34c4,235$1,455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,780.153351.5%17 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x209e…8bb4backed Under67c2,401$1,602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,601.9680544.6%359 W · 446 L-25.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Over63c2,325$1,466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$858.3196645.1%436 W · 530 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbaa5…a51abacked Over37c1,738$639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,099.0636654.1%198 W · 168 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Over31c1,438$446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$992.1556243.2%243 W · 319 L+14.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2aa5…ff32backed Under62c1,166$725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$724.9218544.9%83 W · 102 L-0.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49f2…d7b4backed Over70c1,000$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3004143.9%18 W · 23 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Over32c883.36$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$600.6934051.5%175 W · 165 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f3f…5878backed Over37c668.78$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.338137%30 W · 51 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Under69c602.99$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41611644.8%52 W · 64 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6077…3231backed Over32c599.5$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.662850%14 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7ab…16d0backed Over78c562.53$437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.0243067%288 W · 142 L+31.9wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+11.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Over59c433.3$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.519742.1%83 W · 114 L-12.6wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-16%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa351…fb7cbacked Under40c280$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112560%3 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick32cpaid+349.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Over71c247.26$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.711,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa76e…dcb6backed Under63c200$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12634154.5%186 W · 155 L+15.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6c04…a593backed Under28c197.92$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.42540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a28…41edbacked Under55c155.37$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.8121350.7%108 W · 105 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe23…2041backed Under34c147.95$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.91616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick45cpaid-57.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf6ee…0e41backed Under50c135.69$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.8420448%98 W · 106 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+2.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Under11c125.3$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.367440.5%30 W · 44 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaaa1…d5dabacked Under14c121.48$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5510728%30 W · 77 L-8.2wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-35.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbf4f…f538backed Over60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406960.9%42 W · 27 L+11.0wins+0.16per pick45cpaid+40.4%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x578f…eafabacked Over40c100$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-27.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce5f…ab17backed Over60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4016250%81 W · 81 L+9.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x27e9…f09ebacked Over60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408253.7%44 W · 38 L+8.4wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+27.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6617…29bdbacked Over60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409045.6%41 W · 49 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e0a…07fdbacked Over36c98.83$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.2524349%119 W · 124 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc63b…6e4ebacked Over65c98$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.8335032.3%113 W · 237 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-22%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91a8…2db7backed Over36c96.16$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.545675%42 W · 14 L+8.3wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+24%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x21f2…cce4backed Over37c78.02$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.156832.4%22 W · 46 L+0.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f9b…cdeebacked Over62c75.79$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.9469033.3%230 W · 460 L-27.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xac51…a1fbbacked Under66c74.21$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.983429.4%10 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-40.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x300d…780dbacked Over60c54$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.67255.6%40 W · 32 L+8.8wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+29.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5cdf…8666backed Over60c54$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.612651.6%65 W · 61 L+14.8wins+0.12per pick40cpaid+25.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xcbbc…2b70backed Over60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2016453.7%88 W · 76 L+15.1wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+16.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x05bc…eabbbacked Over78c49.19$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.713961.5%24 W · 15 L+4.9wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+16.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x9c04…2c55backed Over31c47.93$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.074346.5%20 W · 23 L+4.8wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+25%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa9fb…f9d1backed Over31c46.38$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3216240.7%66 W · 96 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-17.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x785d…4e88backed Under66c43.93$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.914148.8%20 W · 21 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99f7…1a59backed Over60c42$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.825351.4%130 W · 123 L+23.3wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+17.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x355c…81c5backed Over36c40.07$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.648448.8%41 W · 43 L-5.4wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-12.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf6c8…a184backed Over61c35$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.6536044.2%159 W · 201 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed Over61c34$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.2665337.2%243 W · 410 L-15.1wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-28.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc74d…9690backed Over60c27$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.818248.9%89 W · 93 L+15.0wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+11.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3a72…0a38backed Over60c27$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.820448%98 W · 106 L+12.7wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+14.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x00d4…4c46backed Over60c27$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.821748.8%106 W · 111 L+15.1wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+12.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x91e0…26a0backed Over60c27$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.830250%151 W · 151 L+11.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-1.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xca7c…e994backed Under59c22.32$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1723149.4%114 W · 117 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x310b…19ccbacked Over74c20.03$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.271250%6 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4c7…c6bdbacked Under69c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+25%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c64…929abacked Over68c19.53$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.164362.8%27 W · 16 L+5.7wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+20.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.