TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Game Handicap: PARI (-1.5) vs South America Rejects (+1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
South America Rejectsof PARIVISION, South America Rejects
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$31,406
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$37,112

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,406 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcdfb…980cbacked PARIVISION59c11,252$6,638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,638.4517546.9%82 W · 93 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed South America Rejects41c7,000$2,870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,13015544.5%69 W · 86 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked South America Rejects39c4,200$1,638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,561.9934544.3%153 W · 192 L-15.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf394…cdb1backed South America Rejects41c3,685$1,511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,174.313036.7%11 W · 19 L-3.4wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6e54…511ebacked PARIVISION61c1,572$959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$959.1228145.6%128 W · 153 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed South America Rejects39c1,499$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$914.5419742.1%83 W · 114 L-12.6wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-16%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc59f…954ebacked PARIVISION61c1,366$833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$833.045238.5%20 W · 32 L-5.8wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-24.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6f83…3af9backed PARIVISION61c1,361$830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$830.11633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bb4…a903backed PARIVISION62c1,126$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$695.843844.7%17 W · 21 L-7.1wins-0.19per pick63cpaid-32.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x72a6…cfefbacked PARIVISION58c1,040$603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603.192040%8 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-13.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7756…d00abacked PARIVISION57c1,000$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57025147.4%119 W · 132 L+12.3wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x115f…e217backed South America Rejects43c903.74$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$519.085747.4%27 W · 30 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa04b…f09bbacked South America Rejects44c864.21$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.782962.1%18 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed South America Rejects41c705.8$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.4234051.5%175 W · 165 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked South America Rejects41c588.17$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.0242145.4%191 W · 230 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked South America Rejects39c512.03$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.2256243.2%243 W · 319 L+14.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked PARIVISION53c508.89$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.8999844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc54…cfbabacked PARIVISION59c502.43$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.43966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+23.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6077…3231backed South America Rejects40c482$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.22850%14 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa5e…1468backed PARIVISION61c480.29$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.982157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f03…77dcbacked South America Rejects48c440.09$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.929240.4%118 W · 174 L+8.4wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd7ef…b4f0backed PARIVISION61c438.27$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.3430%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa76e…dcb6backed PARIVISION57c419.18$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.834154.5%186 W · 155 L+15.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked South America Rejects41c339$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.017440.5%30 W · 44 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3322…7dc2backed PARIVISION60c324.15$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1958148.1%39 W · 42 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf437…ff9bbacked PARIVISION61c320.2$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.3232148.3%155 W · 166 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ca6…6a20backed South America Rejects42c286.77$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.1117443.7%76 W · 98 L-11.2wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-13%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked South America Rejects39c280.32$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17185851.3%440 W · 418 L+30.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed PARIVISION60c273.24$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.5856852.5%298 W · 270 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked South America Rejects46c246.57$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.8696645.1%436 W · 530 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5051…82a6backed South America Rejects42c205.31$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.0820452.5%107 W · 97 L+12.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8b39…7fbcbacked PARIVISION58c169.37$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.455240.4%21 W · 31 L-4.2wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed South America Rejects42c160.87$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.357735%202 W · 375 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0f5…57e2backed South America Rejects42c159.44$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.4850855.5%282 W · 226 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x050c…b15fbacked PARIVISION61c140.88$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.94728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick46cpaid-35.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x55d9…832cbacked PARIVISION53c133.72$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.8741944.2%185 W · 234 L-1.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e7c…164dbacked South America Rejects40c131.2$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.728248.8%40 W · 42 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x87ed…b497backed South America Rejects42c112.93$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.522752.9%120 W · 107 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabe5…d99abacked South America Rejects42c96.52$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.9838649.5%191 W · 195 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fb9…a8b3backed PARIVISION61c81.65$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.8159556.6%337 W · 258 L+12.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f3f…5878backed South America Rejects41c74.71$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.088137%30 W · 51 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6ee…0e41backed PARIVISION54c58.63$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6620448%98 W · 106 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+2.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x69b7…ae1dbacked South America Rejects42c57.45$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.327471.6%53 W · 21 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick66cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc22a…a35cbacked South America Rejects46c56.73$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.6313540.7%55 W · 80 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8849…9a83backed PARIVISION55c56.61$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1410659.4%63 W · 43 L+9.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+15.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7ef2…5584backed South America Rejects40c40.97$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.581478.6%11 W · 3 L+4.4wins+0.32per pick47cpaid+61.1%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x9a34…3883backed South America Rejects47c40.66$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.551540%6 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed PARIVISION54c37.73$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2819857.1%113 W · 85 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3396…0ef4backed South America Rejects41c35.29$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.822441.7%10 W · 14 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed South America Rejects44c34.44$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.351,03416.3%169 W · 865 L-158.1wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x710b…93b0backed South America Rejects42c31.39$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.2112260.7%74 W · 48 L+10.7wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+12.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed South America Rejects44c23.36$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.0427357.1%156 W · 117 L+9.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c64…929abacked South America Rejects68c22.97$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.344362.8%27 W · 16 L+5.7wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+20.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x230f…bb8cbacked PARIVISION59c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick52cpaid-55.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa0c5…4291backed PARIVISION60c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.19per pick53cpaid+41%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.