MLB · resolved market
Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a8bc69b442ba22e85bd3edc7c0506c7ebb11875190828dfa0743872e70d5758
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,180
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,624
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,180 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6e3…6dfebacked Under | 45c | 2,130$958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$958.3 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7333…ca16backed Under | 2c | 1,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 55c | 801.26$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.31 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 68c | 499.23$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.75 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 32c | 484.03$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.89 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 60c | 357.11$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.54 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 45c | 264.58$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.9 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Under | 41c | 254$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.14 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Under | 40c | 229.32$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.84 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe8…1141backed Over | 55c | 224.85$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.18 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 59c | 195.02$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.89 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 55c | 171.25$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.06 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Over | 55c | 159.22$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.65 | 395 | 53.7%212 W · 183 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 55c | 125.7$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.57 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 43c | 116.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.14 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 43c | 84.71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.42 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Over | 61c | 79.83$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.99 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Over | 55c | 66.16$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.77 | 256 | 48%123 W · 133 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 35c | 60.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fad…a796backed Over | 58c | 56.54$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 43c | 48.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd77d…b01cbacked Over | 60c | 40.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcce5…7eb2backed Over | 60c | 40.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Over | 66c | 39.94$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 55c | 36.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Over | 55c | 36.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 524 | 49%257 W · 267 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Over | 55c | 36.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 418 | 47.6%199 W · 219 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Over | 55c | 36.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 155 | 52.3%81 W · 74 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 57c | 34.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe865…9925backed Over | 57c | 34.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed Over | 57c | 34.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca9…0898backed Over | 57c | 33.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49ce…bbaebacked Over | 58c | 33.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28cf…2381backed Over | 58c | 33.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Under | 44c | 26.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x169d…998bbacked Under | 44c | 25.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 54c | 24.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 283 | 52.3%148 W · 135 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Over | 55c | 24.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 185 | 53.5%99 W · 86 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33d0…a2a2backed Under | 45c | 22.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 56c | 22.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fce…6476backed Over | 57c | 20.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…10d9backed Over | 57c | 19.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 355 | 47.3%168 W · 187 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5this page
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-4.5)Texas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners won
- Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Seattle MarinersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.