Fifa International · resolved market
Will Portugal vs. Hungary end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0aa8e9a4fc8333c76d2f37a473d9aa45fb54e6e5b4386365b0a2fe5ed1401b75
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,505
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,390
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,505 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked No | 25c | 11,289$2,836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,836.31 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed Yes | 18c | 2,000$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,631.6 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 56c | 1,897$1,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840.01 | 287 | 31%89 W · 198 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab5…900bbacked Yes | 12c | 1,760$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,541.64 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 75c | 886.06$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.55 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf438…de5dbacked Yes | 26c | 755.65$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.18 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7aba…7442backed Yes | 25c | 401.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.33 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f91…9388backed Yes | 15c | 375$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.75 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf88b…aeb5backed Yes | 24c | 324.5$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.62 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b5…f72cbacked Yes | 15c | 204.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.87 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd73f…0a1ebacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 22cpaid | +336.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.86 | 360 | 38.1%137 W · 223 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98e0…bf01backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.86 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f6…1584backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes | 14c | 121.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.43 | 162 | 25.3%41 W · 121 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8874…0b31backed Yes | 14c | 121.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…6c7fbacked Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.14 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +238.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…981ebacked Yes | 18c | 90$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Yes | 25c | 79.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.31 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked Yes | 18c | 64.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.76 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb8…744cbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed No | 75c | 35.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Portugal vs. Hungary end in a draw?this page
- Will Hungary win on 2025-10-14?No won
- Will Portugal win on 2025-10-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.