Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on April 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ab1567cef0ab03320b2bc6481e0c395d70e8fca97b48fb8822952b2889d82e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,477
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,660
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,477 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17f0…20febacked No | 5c | 505.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 336.43$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.13 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 17c | 288.89$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.98 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x633e…b767backed Yes | 74c | 232.78$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 24c | 201.19$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.71 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked Yes | 64c | 187.67$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.65 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 37c | 134.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.47 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…197bbacked Yes | 34c | 123.2$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.31 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 27c | 118.47$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 38c | 114.69$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.32 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 71c | 109.56$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.79 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 34c | 102$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.74 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed No | 65c | 90.85$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.06 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 41c | 79.26$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 58c | 78.05$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.08 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed No | 33c | 65.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 61.95$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.66 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x440c…8dccbacked Yes | 35c | 57.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.68 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 59c | 51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.14 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 31c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.49 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 38c | 48.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.94 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f1…fc8bbacked Yes | 35c | 47.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.71 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 62c | 46.45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 22c | 45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 28c | 43.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.41 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 63c | 43.46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d80…81f2backed Yes | 37c | 42.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.68 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 54c | 41.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc086…6882backed Yes | 37c | 41.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 62c | 37.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 65c | 33.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 45c | 31.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c64…be43backed No | 76c | 29.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 65c | 28.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf88a…cbfebacked Yes | 38c | 28.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 66c | 25.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 65c | 24.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c6…3eb8backed No | 66c | 21.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 74cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 67c | 21.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 67c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc3…37b9backed No | 73c | 18.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 74 | 64.9%48 W · 26 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb76…049ebacked No | 68c | 14.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02cd…cedcbacked No | 76c | 13.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 78cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on April 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C or higher on April 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.