Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on April 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95070cf8ef72e0a39e1c80af0837aee7196979135740bb96dc7f90ef71befebd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,072
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,706
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,072 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 40c | 227.67$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.69 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 43c | 200.14$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.6 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d4…3a45backed Yes | 46c | 120.03$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.16 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…197bbacked Yes | 40c | 115.81$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.35 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 63c | 105.65$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 40c | 102.91$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe6…1bfabacked No | 60c | 93.97$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.13 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc17c…6390backed Yes | 51c | 93.24$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 37c | 89.95$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.23 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 49c | 82.73$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.19 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 56c | 74.08$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 29c | 71.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 57c | 67.47$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 57c | 64.67$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.65 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd91e…4e59backed No | 58c | 60.88$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.37 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x440c…8dccbacked Yes | 42c | 57.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x247e…71fcbacked No | 50c | 57.24$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed Yes | 47c | 53.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d90…3c23backed Yes | 53c | 53.72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 49c | 53$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.03 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fd…3031backed No | 46c | 51.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa301…5067backed No | 54c | 50.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +83.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55b6…bcb2backed Yes | 55c | 49.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…cc5ebacked No | 59c | 48.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.23 | 156 | 66%103 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked No | 52c | 48.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 48c | 48.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 44c | 48.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 51c | 48.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 28c | 46.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 48c | 39.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x610e…102dbacked No | 55c | 39.16$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…5579backed Yes | 48c | 39.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf33…5d4fbacked Yes | 49c | 38.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe4b9…af36backed Yes | 48c | 37.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 48c | 36.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 34c | 33.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 35c | 32.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…c294backed No | 59c | 32.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 94 | 62.8%59 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x723e…083ebacked Yes | 53c | 31.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -6.3wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 47c | 30.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…f008backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +13.9wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 43c | 29.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 42c | 29.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…6291backed Yes | 46c | 28.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 133 | 40.6%54 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 50c | 28.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf88a…cbfebacked Yes | 43c | 28.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86f1…1f53backed No | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 40c | 27.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 50c | 22.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x747a…f334backed No | 52c | 21.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 68c | 20.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 69c | 15.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb7…841cbacked No | 72c | 15.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on April 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on April 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C or higher on April 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.