MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Kansas City Royals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0afee3276d74b27251abf2bd25319138606c0ca39b780b6f0f1decdd620265a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona Diamondbacksof Arizona Diamondbacks, Kansas City Royals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,958
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,958 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Kansas City Royals | 0c | 3,690$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 392 | 9.4%37 W · 355 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 49c | 2,337$1,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,201.11 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Kansas City Royals | 52c | 2,231$1,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,160.18 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Kansas City Royals | 53c | 2,052$1,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,086.96 | 321 | 52%167 W · 154 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 47c | 1,000$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534 | 832 | 48%399 W · 433 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Kansas City Royals | 30c | 642.2$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.78 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 48c | 595$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.09 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…26b7backed Kansas City Royals | 52c | 329$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.08 | 134 | 42.5%57 W · 77 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Kansas City Royals | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 46c | 276$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.15 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 47c | 243.64$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.12 | 408 | 46.1%188 W · 220 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.5 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe9…9c50backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 81 | 59.3%48 W · 33 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Kansas City Royals | 32c | 195$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.26 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Kansas City Royals | 52c | 192.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 69c | 177.61$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.92 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 60c | 160.3$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.64 | 477 | 43%205 W · 272 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Kansas City Royals | 50c | 160$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Kansas City Royals | 53c | 155$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.97 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 47c | 150$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 170 | 50%85 W · 85 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 77c | 114.45$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.81 | 62 | 67.7%42 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 60c | 112.24$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.41 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 68c | 110.59$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.15 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 45c | 105.44$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.99 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Kansas City Royals | 52c | 105$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Kansas City Royals | 45c | 104.25$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.41 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb691…b39dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 99.26$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.31 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44b6…98b4backed Kansas City Royals | 50c | 78.7$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.05 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 63.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Kansas City Royals | 52c | 62.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.29 | 256 | 48%123 W · 133 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1b…7377backed Kansas City Royals | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 65cpaid | -53%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Kansas City Royals | 22c | 46.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 71c | 44.84$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9865…f6afbacked Kansas City Royals | 34c | 43.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 310 | 32.9%102 W · 208 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Kansas City Royals | 37c | 43.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Kansas City Royals | 52c | 38.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Kansas City Royals | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc0…8f18backed Kansas City Royals | 52c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Kansas City Royals | 41c | 32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Kansas City Royals | 43c | 31.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 49c | 28.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Kansas City Royals | 51c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Kansas City Royals | 54c | 21.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Kansas City Royals | 50c | 21.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Kansas City Royals | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.