College Football · resolved market
Troy vs. Buffalo
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0affe85c6f20ceb60db89578d2096f49b1133146f4538c06e9bdd2454da9a992
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Troyof Troy, Buffalo
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,430
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,515
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,430 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x067f…e041backed Troy | 34c | 2,500$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,650 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Buffalo | 66c | 2,398$1,583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,582.96 | 377 | 49.6%187 W · 190 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4662…b73abacked Buffalo | 67c | 895.52$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Troy | 20c | 807.22$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.24 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Troy | 31c | 651.18$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.67 | 553 | 50.3%278 W · 275 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Buffalo | 67c | 635.58$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.5 | 503 | 58.1%292 W · 211 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Troy | 33c | 442.96$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.78 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Buffalo | 80c | 376.83$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9055…756abacked Troy | 76c | 308$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.3 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Buffalo | 41c | 300$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Troy | 34c | 300$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 157 | 34.4%54 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked Troy | 33c | 289.84$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.19 | 471 | 31.4%148 W · 323 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Buffalo | 67c | 233.99$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.77 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…c3b9backed Troy | 32c | 225.27$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.18 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Buffalo | 61c | 200$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.45 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56c3…cc1ebacked Troy | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.52 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Buffalo | 66c | 150$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Troy | 54c | 141.72$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.72 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Troy | 12c | 113.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25ca…25d5backed Troy | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…85abbacked Troy | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61e0…7ecbbacked Buffalo | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b8…9d04backed Troy | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x835b…f474backed Buffalo | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…74aebacked Troy | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb43c…ec64backed Troy | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x144d…42b4backed Buffalo | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c3…e747backed Troy | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb951…4071backed Buffalo | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b82…7522backed Troy | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a2…e0d9backed Buffalo | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6aa…3b48backed Buffalo | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc13…3544backed Buffalo | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb40…a284backed Troy | 32c | 85.56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.18 | 345 | 29.9%103 W · 242 L | -21.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Troy | 13c | 85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.89 | 237 | 51.1%121 W · 116 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d27…7cf5backed Troy | 32c | 69.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.59 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Buffalo | 54c | 60.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x428d…398cbacked Troy | 34c | 58.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbba2…1691backed Buffalo | 67c | 57.73$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Buffalo | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 128 | 57%73 W · 55 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Buffalo | 75c | 30.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 405 | 41.2%167 W · 238 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2082…c686backed Buffalo | 66c | 30.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Troy | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 183 | 38.8%71 W · 112 L | -12.3wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…d805backed Troy | 34c | 29.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +110.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…3099backed Buffalo | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 168 | 39.9%67 W · 101 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7869…61d8backed Buffalo | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x613b…823abacked Buffalo | 78c | 28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfd…3462backed Buffalo | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4140…195fbacked Buffalo | 66c | 16.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.