Middle East · resolved market
Another Israel military action on Yemen in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b08d611203ff97d33fd43c9690342a2b6c1a98e812d2e449a0977769a175be5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,174
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,084
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,174 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8334…4e9fbacked No | 8c | 7,579$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.68 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f6…4cf4backed No | 8c | 3,938$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 1c | 3,500$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 58 | 1.7%1 W · 57 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -93.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 3,411$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.85 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 12c | 2,670$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.35 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cdd…2916backed No | 4c | 2,188$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.49 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed No | 5c | 2,062$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.96 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47c1…825fbacked No | 7c | 1,984$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.45 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 23cpaid | +103.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 1c | 1,879$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…338abacked No | 7c | 1,273$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.13 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed No | 9c | 1,250$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.45 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 11c | 1,243$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 212 | 59.9%127 W · 85 L | +21.8wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 11c | 1,200$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.2 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6d…3c85backed No | 20c | 1,195$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd08e…2f7cbacked No | 9c | 1,064$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.31 | 179 | 29.1%52 W · 127 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 160 | 61.9%99 W · 61 L | +9.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 15c | 941.01$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.64 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 3c | 888$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52f5…19dabacked No | 18c | 727.86$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.51 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…4adbbacked No | 14c | 706.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…538ebacked No | 5c | 555.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 5c | 521.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed No | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed No | 10c | 492.2$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed No | 2c | 490$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 147 | 24.5%36 W · 111 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x461a…4030backed No | 10c | 445.69$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.46 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa51b…26b1backed No | 9c | 400$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 20c | 394.25$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.81 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 80c | 372$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.55 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked No | 25c | 346.86$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.45 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78cf…dbc0backed No | 7c | 260$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa55e…4660backed No | 8c | 235.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc35c…7b66backed No | 9c | 217.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 12c | 205.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 266 | 16.5%44 W · 222 L | -24.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdee6…895dbacked No | 12c | 201.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked No | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 21c | 199.72$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.93 | 136 | 29.4%40 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc0…6278backed No | 6c | 187.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +5.1wins | +0.27per pick | 52cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x50c0…e601backed No | 6c | 175$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbce4…0b87backed No | 6c | 167.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3366…fb2bbacked No | 7c | 160.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d9…a1e9backed No | 15c | 155.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e65…7bc1backed Yes | 76c | 130$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e01…757abacked No | 8c | 128.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac57…f164backed No | 13c | 89.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x633f…3c8abacked No | 25c | 80.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5a…1d35backed Yes | 72c | 77.95$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.01 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.