MLB · resolved market
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b0fda856368676f12e8e8e32cbc971873151ab0d91e105ab9147362e5df8951
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Los Angeles Dodgersof Los Angeles Dodgers, San Francisco Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,575
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,519
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,575 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 47c | 638.3$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.3 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked San Francisco Giants | 53c | 627.25$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.44 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57e5…e51ebacked San Francisco Giants | 39c | 500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 41c | 317.07$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.07 | 299 | 50.5%151 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Francisco Giants | 56c | 278.87$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.71 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed San Francisco Giants | 23c | 260$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f0…fe05backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 69c | 239.46$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.12 | 175 | 45.7%80 W · 95 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4b…fcaebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 42c | 238.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked San Francisco Giants | 43c | 225.25$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.86 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa77a…e6f9backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 57c | 219.58$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.42 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed San Francisco Giants | 59c | 144$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.96 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.21 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 43c | 124.42$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.31 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 53c | 51.52$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.46 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacff…3872backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 183 | 44.8%82 W · 101 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…b9d8backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 151 | 38.4%58 W · 93 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed San Francisco Giants | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 41c | 48.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed San Francisco Giants | 52c | 27.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked San Francisco Giants | 59c | 19.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49dd…a40bbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 64c | 16.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles DodgersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.