MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x692ed93c52b57c1428835b704151dd0015151c5e3f8ed59d529f9cc5865d5e34
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,911
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,361
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,911 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef1b…8697backed No | 60c | 9,714$5,792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,792.22 | 140 | 42.9%60 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Yes | 40c | 4,920$1,979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,940.71 | 1,301 | 50.2%653 W · 648 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…4f96backed Yes | 45c | 2,483$1,112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,371.79 | 534 | 48.9%261 W · 273 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3234…8b1abacked No | 56c | 2,326$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -8.2wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 42c | 1,289$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750.71 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Yes | 44c | 1,252$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.57 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 43c | 1,240$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708.27 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Yes | 42c | 1,086$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.24 | 384 | 53.6%206 W · 178 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9d…b730backed Yes | 44c | 1,000$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +4.2wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 33c | 838.05$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.08 | 755 | 44.2%334 W · 421 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94ba…001dbacked No | 5c | 800$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 9cpaid | +131%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2358…8986backed No | 56c | 654.18$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.34 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe7aa…5039backed No | 61c | 562.84$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed No | 11c | 499.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 63 | 14.3%9 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a1…e6d5backed No | 55c | 359.98$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.99 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0979…fc8abacked No | 19c | 357$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.17 | 102 | 15.7%16 W · 86 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb416…4588backed No | 76c | 329.08$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x616d…bb9bbacked Yes | 79c | 321.69$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.65 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 43c | 300$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbde7…cf8abacked No | 14c | 224.89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 160 | 19.4%31 W · 129 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 43c | 212.97$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.66 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed No | 19c | 133$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 93 | 15.1%14 W · 79 L | -9.5wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77e1…0d6bbacked No | 54c | 127.85$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.3 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73ff…0facbacked No | 56c | 125$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 125 | 75.2%94 W · 31 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00c8…9ccdbacked No | 75c | 120.13$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc26a…76a1backed No | 53c | 119.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.6 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 710 | 44.5%316 W · 394 L | -23.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Yes | 44c | 98.38$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.87 | 328 | 57.9%190 W · 138 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed No | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 407 | 53.6%218 W · 189 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Yes | 46c | 76.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.57 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed Yes | 40c | 56.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.71 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec7…ed98backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb4…9cb8backed Yes | 45c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd3…5896backed No | 53c | 36.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 174 | 46%80 W · 94 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 59c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 950 | 41.5%394 W · 556 L | -48.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes | 48c | 33.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c0…e88fbacked No | 56c | 29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a1…5a4fbacked Yes | 43c | 28.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.26 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed No | 57c | 24.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 503 | 37.2%187 W · 316 L | -42.3wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a5d…e049backed No | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed Yes | 43c | 23.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked No | 55c | 20.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 1,538 | 48.6%747 W · 791 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgersthis page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.