MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66149756d4ecb4c930639d9749db795e436e22ff0a4b15f1bddb31a8b2a09235
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,113
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,831
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,113 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 54c | 9,629$5,224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,223.72 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ef…9e7abacked Under | 43c | 9,277$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,276.63 | 126 | 40.5%51 W · 75 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 43c | 6,181$2,687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,687.17 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x762e…4bf0backed Under | 61c | 5,318$3,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,067.52 | 245 | 51.8%127 W · 118 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16e5…6373backed Under | 69c | 4,400$3,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,364 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 31c | 4,392$1,362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,361.52 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb416…4588backed Under | 40c | 1,452$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$871.08 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Under | 64c | 1,032$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.86 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 39c | 924$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.36 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40b2…2245backed Under | 62c | 806.61$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Over | 42c | 532.25$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +5.9wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 33c | 418.9$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.14 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb8…3058backed Under | 67c | 399.99$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 173 | 54.9%95 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Under | 64c | 381.8$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.57 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4b…fcaebacked Over | 53c | 339.62$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8dd…5672backed Over | 62c | 322.58$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Under | 73c | 320.58$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.25 | 59 | 67.8%40 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 38c | 213.92$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.66 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31db…c25fbacked Under | 74c | 135.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.68 | 75 | 68%51 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 29c | 116.95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.33 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 29c | 113.52$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.38 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Over | 26c | 107.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -5.3wins | -0.24per pick | 38cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeb94…6ef0backed Under | 57c | 105.41$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.41 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 54c | 102.39$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.44 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 33c | 88.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.87 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…4cbabacked Under | 65c | 61.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 309 | 63.1%195 W · 114 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 44c | 61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1478…80debacked Under | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…e6cebacked Under | 69c | 43.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 67c | 40.2$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 58c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Over | 35c | 31.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -9.2wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 28-0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x08f6…cd51backed Under | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 57c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01d7…5fd2backed Under | 74c | 27.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 150 | 79.3%119 W · 31 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 72cpaid | +9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 68c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4978…ea9abacked Over | 48c | 23.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a5d…e049backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa17e…cfcdbacked Under | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cf…8a4fbacked Over | 63c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles DodgersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.