Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Bologna vs. Sport-Club Freiburg end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b257754c84d9003169e57853c0a673c2714ff455b06bd064cd438bfec5b1011
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,854
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,458
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,854 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 32c | 2,121$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,450.7 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 73c | 2,000$1,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,460 | 52 | 69.2%36 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebd…a63dbacked No | 73c | 1,478$1,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,078.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8b…5f7cbacked Yes | 27c | 1,476$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,077.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +121.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed No | 72c | 648.85$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.18 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 39c | 498$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.22 | 200 | 42%84 W · 116 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 46c | 436.68$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.68 | 122 | 47.5%58 W · 64 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0074…2be0backed Yes | 58c | 418.3$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Yes | 37c | 384.14$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.52 | 87 | 55.2%48 W · 39 L | +7.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 70c | 371.33$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.95 | 245 | 57.6%141 W · 104 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Yes | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.14 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…65a7backed Yes | 62c | 322.81$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.81 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 42c | 268.53$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.78 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked No | 72c | 175.47$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.34 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3372…1914backed Yes | 27c | 147.46$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.46 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Yes | 28c | 146.43$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.43 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c02…ca5ebacked Yes | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.45 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +103.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Yes | 26c | 118.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.06 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 73c | 98.86$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.99 | 118 | 69.5%82 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Yes | 28c | 89.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.31 | 75 | 21.3%16 W · 59 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Yes | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.29 | 115 | 36.5%42 W · 73 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 274 | 37.2%102 W · 172 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1092…28d7backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +25%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 72c | 71.09$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.43 | 151 | 51%77 W · 74 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2408…9de9backed No | 74c | 71.03$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Yes | 63c | 48.28$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1128…cfa5backed Yes | 73c | 48.22$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 330 | 55.2%182 W · 148 L | +21.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca25…0f35backed Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 122 | 69.7%85 W · 37 L | +14.5wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3c60…ea1dbacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Yes | 52c | 21.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e0…0b63backed No | 73c | 13.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 72cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bologna vs. Sport-Club Freiburg end in a draw?this page
- Will Bologna win on 2025-10-02?No won
- Will Sport-Club Freiburg win on 2025-10-02?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.