Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Sport-Club Freiburg win on 2025-10-02?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9998615aab36b0b75fc7b96854931c6b3fed8503330b40e652f85f0acd54449
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,446
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,266
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,446 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 77c | 5,422$4,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,237.61 | 151 | 51%77 W · 74 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20da…e704backed Yes | 21c | 4,279$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$901.06 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf763…414fbacked Yes | 23c | 2,503$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Yes | 24c | 2,458$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.1 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed Yes | 24c | 2,061$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -4.7wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 23c | 2,050$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.5 | 260 | 22.3%58 W · 202 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 80c | 1,416$1,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.94 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 22c | 1,256$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.62 | 140 | 42.1%59 W · 81 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 75c | 1,049$787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.32 | 330 | 55.2%182 W · 148 L | +21.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 76c | 1,000$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 204 | 49.5%101 W · 103 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed No | 76c | 961.65$731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.8 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x817f…45cdbacked Yes | 23c | 739.13$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +335.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed No | 78c | 701.08$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.24 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed No | 77c | 668.98$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.87 | 92 | 65.2%60 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 9c | 583.15$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.13 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked No | 78c | 555$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.1 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf6c…2888backed Yes | 9c | 532.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…94bcbacked No | 78c | 512.82$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.82 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 15c | 505.05$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 147 | 33.3%49 W · 98 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fce…28f8backed Yes | 22c | 500.22$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.08 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x723c…01ebbacked Yes | 22c | 447.7$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 22c | 446.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ba…134ebacked Yes | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a70…7057backed Yes | 22c | 363.64$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Yes | 22c | 349.99$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c53…c9b0backed Yes | 22c | 300$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked No | 78c | 300$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Yes | 22c | 249.72$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.8 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6777…2612backed Yes | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6595…edf9backed No | 80c | 211.59$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb313…f17bbacked No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 87 | 55.2%48 W · 39 L | +7.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19cc…3ea3backed Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x346e…1eb7backed Yes | 23c | 199.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked Yes | 22c | 186$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.16 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedb1…3fddbacked Yes | 22c | 182.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 78c | 168.68$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.11 | 122 | 69.7%85 W · 37 L | +14.5wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d1…51a3backed Yes | 22c | 143.86$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…50c9backed Yes | 23c | 130.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa7…e577backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 80cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed Yes | 20c | 120.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Yes | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 75 | 21.3%16 W · 59 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4c…4850backed Yes | 22c | 105.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b90abacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb5…8b87backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf135…eb06backed Yes | 16c | 87.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…bda6backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0909…91cabacked Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +4.9wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9f…f4afbacked Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 76c | 76$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 246 | 55.7%137 W · 109 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7529…5cd7backed Yes | 22c | 56.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf778…2f09backed Yes | 21c | 48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2408…9de9backed No | 77c | 39.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe37e…0009backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…80b3backed No | 79c | 19.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 76c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 237 | 57%135 W · 102 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe24f…5846backed No | 79c | 14.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x797f…d4e0backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 75cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sport-Club Freiburg win on 2025-10-02?this page
- Will Bologna vs. Sport-Club Freiburg end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Bologna win on 2025-10-02?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.