Stocks · resolved market
Will Google (GOOGL) close at >$360 on the final day of trading of the week of Apr 27 – May 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b274a208575bf0d76d335ae4bdaac55b33b9bcae1e8c83c492d73cf757786ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,884
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,873
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,884 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 66c | 1,745$1,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,154.19 | 519 | 27.6%143 W · 376 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked Yes | 33c | 1,479$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990.75 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32c4…d7ecbacked Yes | 36c | 480.12$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.43 | 348 | 39.1%136 W · 212 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42d1…14aabacked Yes | 53c | 358$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6364…8316backed No | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 310 | 36.1%112 W · 198 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 11c | 268.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.47 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 10c | 257.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf751…3041backed Yes | 56c | 148.81$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.63 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55c0…6c7bbacked No | 14c | 142.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 28c | 129$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53a3…e5afbacked No | 25c | 116.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5441…7c4ebacked Yes | 53c | 94.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 15c | 78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9443…7c5dbacked No | 64c | 76.56$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ca…48a9backed No | 32c | 76.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 282 | 61%172 W · 110 L | +42.5wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9473…3b20backed Yes | 60c | 71$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 64cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e77…e626backed Yes | 72c | 65$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +5.1wins | +0.39per pick | 53cpaid | +196.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca9…f466backed No | 45c | 56.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.19per pick | 62cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 73c | 48.14$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked Yes | 69c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 243 | 56.8%138 W · 105 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3bb…fce3backed No | 35c | 42.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes | 37c | 39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.57 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +72%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70d0…8a45backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google (GOOGL) close at >$360 on the final day of trading of the week of Apr 27 – May 1?this page
- Will Google (GOOGL) close at $325-$330 on the final day of trading of the week of Apr 27 – May 1?No won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close at $330-$335 on the final day of trading of the week of Apr 27 – May 1?No won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close at $335-$340 on the final day of trading of the week of Apr 27 – May 1?No won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close at $340-$345 on the final day of trading of the week of Apr 27 – May 1?No won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close at $345-$350 on the final day of trading of the week of Apr 27 – May 1?No won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close at $350-$355 on the final day of trading of the week of Apr 27 – May 1?No won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close at $355-$360 on the final day of trading of the week of Apr 27 – May 1?No won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close at <$315 on the final day of trading of the week of Apr 27 – May 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.