Lol · resolved market
Game Handicap: NRG (-1.5) vs Supernova (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b3c936f2d370c40c27154389282a37bdc54d9fffe66a6dfc1c64c1aeb9ba9b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- NRG Esportsof NRG Esports, Supernova
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,900
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,469
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,900 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x509d…0a6bbacked Supernova | 66c | 1,914$1,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,259.81 | 670 | 56.9%381 W · 289 L | +17.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f03…b1bebacked Supernova | 67c | 1,291$865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$865.05 | 1,132 | 52.5%594 W · 538 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked NRG Esports | 33c | 1,000$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665 | 1,368 | 37.7%516 W · 852 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Supernova | 60c | 853.46$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.36 | 1,794 | 51.1%917 W · 877 L | +50.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed NRG Esports | 33c | 705.22$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.5 | 1,007 | 47.9%482 W · 525 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fbf…4605backed NRG Esports | 34c | 485.85$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.66 | 260 | 42.3%110 W · 150 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24d4…4e1dbacked NRG Esports | 34c | 395.46$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261 | 271 | 42.4%115 W · 156 L | -15.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…3231backed NRG Esports | 33c | 290.85$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.87 | 84 | 48.8%41 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbed4…f891backed NRG Esports | 33c | 206.26$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.1 | 512 | 47.3%242 W · 270 L | -9.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed NRG Esports | 68c | 176.41$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.31 | 1,170 | 66.2%774 W · 396 L | +69.6wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe4…d0f1backed NRG Esports | 34c | 153.66$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.42 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0302…9070backed Supernova | 65c | 150.62$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.9 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcf…056bbacked NRG Esports | 34c | 145.59$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.09 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x561d…94bebacked NRG Esports | 34c | 141.24$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.22 | 465 | 52.7%245 W · 220 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked NRG Esports | 33c | 115.18$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.17 | 536 | 49.8%267 W · 269 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd507…a6ddbacked NRG Esports | 34c | 114.29$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.43 | 300 | 35%105 W · 195 L | -21.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed NRG Esports | 32c | 80$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 608 | 49.5%301 W · 307 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a41…15b2backed NRG Esports | 34c | 57.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.03 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09d6…3cf4backed NRG Esports | 33c | 39.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66a2…3538backed Supernova | 68c | 29.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: NRG (-1.5) vs Supernova (+1.5)this page
- LoL: NRG Esports vs Supernova (BO3) - North American Challengers League Regular SeasonNRG Esports won
- LoL: NRG Esports vs Supernova - Game 1 WinnerNRG Esports won
- LoL: NRG Esports vs Supernova - Game 2 WinnerNRG Esports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.