Lol · resolved market
LoL: NRG Esports vs Supernova - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5156c66ce54b7957a3944a19333a6a2b1cb4ea363cb239fe3b8028eaf0496321
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- NRG Esportsof NRG Esports, Supernova
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,702
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,097
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,702 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcdfb…980cbacked NRG Esports | 60c | 7,422$4,448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,974.3 | 191 | 50.8%97 W · 94 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x509d…0a6bbacked Supernova | 40c | 5,501$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,200.4 | 670 | 56.9%381 W · 289 L | +17.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f03…b1bebacked Supernova | 40c | 4,000$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 1,132 | 52.5%594 W · 538 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06c0…e618backed NRG Esports | 60c | 3,368$2,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,347.41 | 279 | 57.7%161 W · 118 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbb…39dabacked Supernova | 10c | 1,574$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.52 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Supernova | 16c | 665.48$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.06 | 2,825 | 41.4%1,169 W · 1,656 L | -14.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c06…b98abacked Supernova | 18c | 664.2$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.38 | 101 | 52.5%53 W · 48 L | -9.3wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc386…386fbacked Supernova | 9c | 606.32$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.26 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.25per pick | 40cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Supernova | 41c | 500$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 1,731 | 44.2%765 W · 966 L | -28.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2757…55f0backed Supernova | 10c | 355.7$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.57 | 107 | 38.3%41 W · 66 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Supernova | 40c | 351.25$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.5 | 1,368 | 37.7%516 W · 852 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…078ebacked Supernova | 40c | 296.91$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.76 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31fd…e144backed Supernova | 10c | 288.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed NRG Esports | 80c | 200.52$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.55 | 142 | 46.5%66 W · 76 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Supernova | 19c | 145.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 2,341 | 40.3%943 W · 1,398 L | -61.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Supernova | 46c | 145.13$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.55 | 2,495 | 47.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L | -32.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…a770backed NRG Esports | 77c | 131.34$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 1,372 | 48.6%667 W · 705 L | +57.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Supernova | 25c | 113.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 696 | 44.4%309 W · 387 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed NRG Esports | 59c | 111.43$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.83 | 304 | 41.8%127 W · 177 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff6…3a39backed Supernova | 29c | 98.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9be…a0c1backed Supernova | 27c | 61.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 337 | 37.7%127 W · 210 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Supernova | 40c | 57.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 1,207 | 43.5%525 W · 682 L | -14.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed NRG Esports | 50c | 46.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 1,539 | 43.7%673 W · 866 L | -28.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a2…3538backed Supernova | 40c | 45.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…fce5backed NRG Esports | 76c | 38.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 183 | 59.6%109 W · 74 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked NRG Esports | 50c | 38.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 229 | 55.5%127 W · 102 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0241…fd36backed NRG Esports | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbed4…f891backed NRG Esports | 80c | 24.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 512 | 47.3%242 W · 270 L | -9.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b9…7a6bbacked NRG Esports | 55c | 21.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 181 | 48.6%88 W · 93 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LoL: NRG Esports vs Supernova - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Game Handicap: NRG (-1.5) vs Supernova (+1.5)NRG Esports won
- LoL: NRG Esports vs Supernova (BO3) - North American Challengers League Regular SeasonNRG Esports won
- LoL: NRG Esports vs Supernova - Game 2 WinnerNRG Esports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.