Lol · resolved market
LoL: NRG Esports vs Supernova - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab1c962d4bfb84a41c562affeb185ef689ea182aea8628114383ac4100d524fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- NRG Esportsof NRG Esports, Supernova
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,045
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,005
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,045 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd3b0…329ebacked NRG Esports | 75c | 4,556$3,396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,160.42 | 2,004 | 58.2%1,166 W · 838 L | +86.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…5a3fbacked Supernova | 25c | 4,233$1,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,058.29 | 905 | 37.5%339 W · 566 L | -18.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed NRG Esports | 76c | 2,036$1,554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.96 | 1,731 | 44.2%765 W · 966 L | -28.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x823b…59e9backed Supernova | 22c | 1,576$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.11 | 124 | 50%62 W · 62 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbc…62a3backed NRG Esports | 64c | 1,472$935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.53 | 631 | 61.2%386 W · 245 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Supernova | 34c | 998.2$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.37 | 1,794 | 51.1%917 W · 877 L | +50.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Supernova | 21c | 615.52$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.83 | 753 | 42.5%320 W · 433 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1365…c82abacked NRG Esports | 77c | 484.05$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.14 | 989 | 56.8%562 W · 427 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…a770backed NRG Esports | 66c | 425.49$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.2 | 1,372 | 48.6%667 W · 705 L | +57.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Supernova | 37c | 415.12$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.6 | 1,940 | 48.1%934 W · 1,006 L | +22.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x691a…d113backed NRG Esports | 74c | 290.98$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.66 | 103 | 55.3%57 W · 46 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed NRG Esports | 75c | 265.26$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.61 | 142 | 46.5%66 W · 76 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Supernova | 31c | 259.25$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.62 | 2,341 | 40.3%943 W · 1,398 L | -61.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Supernova | 26c | 242.57$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.1 | 2,825 | 41.4%1,169 W · 1,656 L | -14.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Supernova | 23c | 241.73$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.45 | 696 | 44.4%309 W · 387 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Supernova | 37c | 240.55$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 1,061 | 54.7%580 W · 481 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc397…bb3bbacked Supernova | 23c | 205.32$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 1,663 | 59.5%990 W · 673 L | +98.5wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a47…5e77backed Supernova | 23c | 162$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 75 | 33.3%25 W · 50 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Supernova | 28c | 152.05$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.15 | 1,134 | 31%352 W · 782 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Supernova | 44c | 150$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 2,495 | 47.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L | -32.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed4…f891backed NRG Esports | 63c | 149.91$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.48 | 512 | 47.3%242 W · 270 L | -9.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed NRG Esports | 56c | 146.04$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.26 | 304 | 41.8%127 W · 177 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf83…a140backed Supernova | 39c | 129.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.07 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…9ac1backed Supernova | 23c | 127.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 169 | 41.4%70 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Supernova | 36c | 125.42$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.94 | 1,539 | 43.7%673 W · 866 L | -28.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a57…968cbacked Supernova | 39c | 112.66$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 563 | 41%231 W · 332 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6048…2711backed NRG Esports | 79c | 97.71$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9be…a0c1backed Supernova | 23c | 93.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 337 | 37.7%127 W · 210 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa844…83b8backed Supernova | 25c | 88.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 621 | 58.8%365 W · 256 L | +32.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfb…980cbacked NRG Esports | 61c | 81.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.66 | 191 | 50.8%97 W · 94 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…0864backed NRG Esports | 77c | 70.48$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 744 | 62.2%463 W · 281 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x812a…73edbacked Supernova | 37c | 61.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 584 | 20.2%118 W · 466 L | -58.1wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -43%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8120…a9f1backed NRG Esports | 76c | 59.83$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 166 | 53.6%89 W · 77 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed NRG Esports | 76c | 43.49$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 751 | 50.7%381 W · 370 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed NRG Esports | 80c | 40.94$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 261 | 54.8%143 W · 118 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdded…13a2backed Supernova | 28c | 39.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 144 | 50.7%73 W · 71 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed NRG Esports | 77c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 1,643 | 44.4%730 W · 913 L | -42.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0642…8c68backed NRG Esports | 75c | 34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 137 | 59.9%82 W · 55 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7c…c4c5backed NRG Esports | 76c | 25.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 212 | 67%142 W · 70 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +11%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d82…9ecdbacked NRG Esports | 77c | 24.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 76cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0474…fbd4backed NRG Esports | 67c | 21.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe748…bc49backed NRG Esports | 76c | 16.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 225 | 48%108 W · 117 L | -11.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LoL: NRG Esports vs Supernova - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Game Handicap: NRG (-1.5) vs Supernova (+1.5)NRG Esports won
- LoL: NRG Esports vs Supernova (BO3) - North American Challengers League Regular SeasonNRG Esports won
- LoL: NRG Esports vs Supernova - Game 1 WinnerNRG Esports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.