Bundesliga · resolved market
Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-03-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b7eff258040da47a11019c5244232287fa5fa53c308bea3253ab25704e80da8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $110,024
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $110,024 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 5c | 8,136$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.52 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 10c | 7,554$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.34 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1017…714fbacked Yes | 16c | 3,900$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aec…b4cebacked Yes | 16c | 3,125$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…b7b7backed Yes | 16c | 3,101$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.16 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f1…af18backed Yes | 4c | 2,999$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 7c | 1,882$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.65 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41da…0b58backed Yes | 6c | 1,400$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b54…db07backed Yes | 16c | 937.5$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a8…5c27backed Yes | 4c | 810.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Yes | 6c | 800$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 143 | 15.4%22 W · 121 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 15c | 793.8$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.07 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…6952backed Yes | 16c | 630.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Yes | 13c | 597.22$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.64 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa10e…4ea1backed Yes | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 6c | 441$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecad…875cbacked Yes | 13c | 306.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.79 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x631c…7bfebacked Yes | 7c | 305.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…841fbacked Yes | 17c | 271.08$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4434…54b8backed Yes | 17c | 269.37$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Yes | 13c | 199$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 109 | 43.1%47 W · 62 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf6…8644backed Yes | 10c | 198.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 13c | 158$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 339 | 45.7%155 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 97 | 21.6%21 W · 76 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf591…39c8backed Yes | 13c | 133.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c7e…d934backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe3…949cbacked Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0535…f195backed Yes | 16c | 121.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Yes | 13c | 118.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…58e1backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -4.4wins | -0.23per pick | 65cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd80f…92febacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d55…1e94backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Yes | 13c | 83.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 149 | 42.3%63 W · 86 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa2…8cebbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-03-14?this page
- Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. FC Augsburg end in a draw?No won
- Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-03-14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.