Bundesliga · resolved market
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. FC Augsburg end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6cd2b7c69aad4dd8849b29b9f901fa5bdd7828dbc0dc40bdcc70f6639445ece4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,487
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,487 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d30…ce29backed Yes | 16c | 30,000$4,899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,899.09 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 15c | 13,494$2,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,059.71 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 80c | 3,952$3,162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790.42 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17f1…af18backed Yes | 3c | 3,333$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 80c | 2,620$2,094 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.58 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aec…b4cebacked Yes | 20c | 2,500$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe726…4c87backed Yes | 20c | 1,985$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe521…9caebacked Yes | 20c | 1,303$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc1b…62c9backed Yes | 20c | 1,150$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 4c | 955.42$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 79c | 937.67$743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.27 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0df…8f41backed No | 79c | 836$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.56 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…b6a5backed Yes | 21c | 700$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +5.7wins | +0.14per pick | 27cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x749f…714bbacked Yes | 16c | 507.94$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4923…6866backed Yes | 15c | 420$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a6…7971backed Yes | 24c | 417.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d7…0b3fbacked Yes | 20c | 405.36$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.07 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…7976backed Yes | 15c | 400$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed No | 79c | 399.99$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 358 | 56.4%202 W · 156 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 11c | 204.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…0b60backed No | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…6002backed Yes | 5c | 182.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…a28abacked Yes | 20c | 175$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes | 22c | 162.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 147 | 34.7%51 W · 96 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x631c…7bfebacked Yes | 15c | 154.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaffe…7140backed Yes | 20c | 146$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 16c | 128.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c7…007dbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9684…a461backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfccd…02d6backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 46 | 71.7%33 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80f…92febacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29d9…91a2backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 72cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x449c…eaf5backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x080b…cd11backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8136…772cbacked No | 79c | 99.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…ff77backed Yes | 19c | 95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 19c | 82.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…381bbacked Yes | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56a7…9f37backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +3.8wins | +0.27per pick | 51cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x452f…b277backed Yes | 20c | 57.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06b…0e9ebacked No | 80c | 50.41$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c77…6e76backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ad…9636backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 79c | 43.95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 80c | 22.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a6…44edbacked No | 80c | 15.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. FC Augsburg end in a draw?this page
- Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-03-14?Yes won
- Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-03-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.