Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on August 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0bb15676f2897f7d8217b06a09c44db65d5df312ddfd3f05cea7e830d766605f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,731
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,641
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,731 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 77c | 296$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.23 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 5c | 270$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 23c | 179.84$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.59 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4d…bb01backed Yes | 21c | 168.84$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.38 | 218 | 29.4%64 W · 154 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 23c | 157.25$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.36 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 27c | 117.4$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.53 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5a…b6c6backed Yes | 70c | 112.23$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 24c | 110.64$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.14 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 75c | 107.71$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.83 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 42c | 103.79$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.46 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 45c | 103.26$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.05 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 16c | 75.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 62.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 52c | 52.79$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.51 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 77c | 49.27$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 51c | 42.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 41c | 41.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 79c | 40.23$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 79c | 37.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 43c | 34.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 76c | 32.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 39c | 31.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.34 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 31.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 62c | 30.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 73c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 60c | 25.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec21…c83fbacked No | 79c | 25.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 71 | 66.2%47 W · 24 L | -8.2wins | -0.12per pick | 78cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 21.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf2…172dbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40be…e067backed Yes | 75c | 19.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa08b…270cbacked Yes | 62c | 17.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 79c | 17.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 72c | 16.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 76c | 14.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on August 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on August 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.