Asian League · resolved market
Will V-Varen Nagasaki win on 2026-05-09?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0be59c419a2e4506038827e98b88b61143e65a77610b20fea75004c3e0d0662f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,809
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,514
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,809 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x75bd…0288backed Yes | 29c | 3,453$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.72 | 189 | 52.9%100 W · 89 L | +10.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 76c | 2,514$1,921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.79 | 2,528 | 42.2%1,067 W · 1,461 L | +53.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 70c | 1,930$1,347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.75 | 1,319 | 56.7%748 W · 571 L | +64.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Yes | 20c | 1,542$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.33 | 245 | 23.3%57 W · 188 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf919…3241backed Yes | 34c | 1,412$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 42c | 1,332$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.75 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 23c | 1,016$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.34 | 1,116 | 49.5%552 W · 564 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceee…d39ebacked Yes | 20c | 1,001$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.27 | 148 | 48%71 W · 77 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0c…5292backed Yes | 13c | 885.71$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.4 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ef…80f7backed Yes | 18c | 825.68$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf57c…66febacked Yes | 9c | 569.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.11 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd41b…f231backed Yes | 31c | 551.79$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Yes | 5c | 427.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 26c | 358.47$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.71 | 5,963 | 46%2,744 W · 3,219 L | +46.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed No | 71c | 284.95$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.23 | 282 | 47.9%135 W · 147 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed No | 77c | 278.4$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.95 | 401 | 56.4%226 W · 175 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa4…3409backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 42c | 238.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.19 | 1,235 | 49.9%616 W · 619 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked Yes | 12c | 212.34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 78c | 201.6$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.31 | 1,766 | 50.2%887 W · 879 L | +31.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7106…1caabacked Yes | 9c | 200.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 69 | 24.6%17 W · 52 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…e471backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.25 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.16per pick | 60cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…5694backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 18c | 179.78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.56 | 119 | 31.9%38 W · 81 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 19c | 179.35$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.28 | 1,749 | 50.7%887 W · 862 L | +30.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Yes | 13c | 155.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 226 | 42.5%96 W · 130 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 11c | 154.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 361 | 42.4%153 W · 208 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58be…2517backed Yes | 16c | 152.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…f0b3backed Yes | 14c | 142.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 78c | 141.58$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.06 | 899 | 55.1%495 W · 404 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked No | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 246 | 54.1%133 W · 113 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0633…cfdebacked No | 71c | 124.3$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.05 | 34 | 73.5%25 W · 9 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 62cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed No | 78c | 112.23$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c7…1942backed Yes | 20c | 107.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 82 | 14.6%12 W · 70 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd83c…6b83backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…f0b2backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.61 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4538…7d5cbacked Yes | 20c | 95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…c38cbacked Yes | 22c | 92.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 116 | 50%58 W · 58 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x106b…4e8bbacked Yes | 21c | 85.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6647…1a9ebacked Yes | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5500…da1bbacked Yes | 18c | 66.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…ea66backed Yes | 20c | 66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 19c | 60.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f01…0d90backed Yes | 22c | 58.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea87…8066backed Yes | 23c | 56.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa590…271cbacked No | 71c | 54.69$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 79c | 43.01$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 593 | 42.5%252 W · 341 L | -28.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 41c | 36.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 34c | 32.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 464 | 22.6%105 W · 359 L | -22.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d6…b2a6backed No | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 98 | 59.2%58 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed No | 78c | 22.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 282 | 53.5%151 W · 131 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23bc…5487backed No | 77c | 16.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed No | 80c | 15.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.14 | 154 | 55.8%86 W · 68 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 78c | 14.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.26 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will V-Varen Nagasaki win on 2026-05-09?this page
- Will Cerezo Ōsaka vs. V-Varen Nagasaki end in a draw?No won
- Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2026-05-09?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.