Mls · resolved market
Will Columbus Crew vs. Minnesota United FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c0debbf8a73821d0b897699859416a7e95a2e5de9ac4086f4e5496b11d76d38
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,843
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,134
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,843 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 75c | 4,649$3,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,173.82 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…4194backed No | 63c | 3,488$2,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,307.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes | 41c | 3,167$1,294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,294.2 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Yes | 25c | 2,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed No | 73c | 596.57$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.07 | 177 | 53.1%94 W · 83 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -22%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc98f…a13fbacked Yes | 5c | 500$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked No | 74c | 345.53$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.62 | 229 | 46.7%107 W · 122 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…75f1backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked No | 80c | 192$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.67 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 16c | 137$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 24c | 124.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Yes | 24c | 121.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 154 | 58.4%90 W · 64 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed No | 74c | 104.22$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.07 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd16…5cf0backed Yes | 27c | 99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 135 | 18.5%25 W · 110 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked Yes | 42c | 96.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 166 | 57.2%95 W · 71 L | +12.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 78c | 90.92$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed No | 74c | 75.63$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.66 | 89 | 34.8%31 W · 58 L | -16.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 74c | 74.56$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 304 | 44.1%134 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Yes | 41c | 69.24$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked No | 65c | 61.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 222 | 69.4%154 W · 68 L | +31.4wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 76c | 55.94$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 76c | 50.25$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7f…a844backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed No | 78c | 49.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 259 | 34.4%89 W · 170 L | -28.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed No | 72c | 45.47$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 52c | 45.29$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 43c | 44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 79c | 41.37$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 372 | 49.2%183 W · 189 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 75c | 34.9$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 38c | 29.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce8…fc49backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 76c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | -6.2wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1818…2c75backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +52%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Columbus Crew vs. Minnesota United FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Columbus Crew win on 2026-05-02?No won
- Will Minnesota United FC win on 2026-05-02?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.