Mls · resolved market
Will Minnesota United FC win on 2026-05-02?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61c4ffc62130d47a301944875cd87229961cfd06c5b1eb53e7f96b91874e5878
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,301
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,502
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,301 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 78c | 3,031$2,363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,362.66 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 22c | 2,296$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,785.46 | 530 | 40.6%215 W · 315 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 2c | 1,100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,082.99 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 15cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Yes | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x422c…9840backed Yes | 22c | 909.09$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.09 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed No | 78c | 821$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.38 | 238 | 58%138 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a6…6d23backed Yes | 22c | 761.4$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.89 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 77c | 734.73$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.74 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 6c | 680.92$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.9 | 304 | 44.1%134 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…5856backed Yes | 16c | 386.95$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.02 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Yes | 22c | 378.27$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.05 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce3…07b5backed Yes | 75c | 365.3$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…1639backed Yes | 20c | 355.25$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.3 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked No | 24c | 343$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.94 | 189 | 67.2%127 W · 62 L | +21.1wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 14c | 300$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.09 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 60c | 300$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.71 | 293 | 70.3%206 W · 87 L | +41.2wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 77c | 291$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.12 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked Yes | 67c | 288.9$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.21 | 229 | 46.7%107 W · 122 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed No | 21c | 257.91$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.79 | 97 | 40.2%39 W · 58 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed No | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +80.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 40c | 234.39$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.59 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 8c | 203.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.86 | 110 | 46.4%51 W · 59 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 62c | 169$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.19 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Yes | 22c | 159.09$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.09 | 243 | 26.3%64 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 78c | 151.25$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.47 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Yes | 9c | 122$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.73 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 77c | 119.26$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.92 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked No | 78c | 102.56$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -23%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed Yes | 75c | 101.34$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 177 | 53.1%94 W · 83 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -22%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 23c | 100.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.17 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked No | 61c | 89.9$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.71 | 208 | 49.5%103 W · 105 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed No | 78c | 86.81$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.72 | 260 | 50.4%131 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Yes | 57c | 81.48$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.68 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Yes | 45c | 77.36$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.21 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 14c | 75.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.14 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9212…4040backed Yes | 71c | 74.44$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 139 | 52.5%73 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed No | 77c | 65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 87 | 60.9%53 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Yes | 55c | 63.17$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.26 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 44c | 62.31$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.15 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 168 | 53.6%90 W · 78 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc45…c611backed Yes | 22c | 54.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.55 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 30c | 52.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked No | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 157 | 48.4%76 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Yes | 56c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 99 | 65.7%65 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 73c | 43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d21…92e5backed No | 57c | 39.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3c…fc78backed Yes | 71c | 38.9$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d5…11f0backed No | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 78c | 37.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0dc…ffadbacked No | 79c | 37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 115 | 63.5%73 W · 42 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1818…2c75backed No | 51c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +52%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed No | 42c | 31.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +96.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…b505backed Yes | 78c | 29.53$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed No | 78c | 25.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 109 | 57.8%63 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6b…8ffabacked No | 78c | 25.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…b169backed No | 41c | 24.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked No | 78c | 20.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 78c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | -6.2wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Minnesota United FC win on 2026-05-02?this page
- Will Columbus Crew vs. Minnesota United FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Columbus Crew win on 2026-05-02?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.